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U.K. Covid Infections Are Now Slowing, Government Scientists Say

U.K. Covid Infections Are Now Slowing, Government Scientists Say

Coronavirus infections in the U.K. continue to rise but at a slower rate than previous weeks, according to government scientists.

The reproduction factor of the virus -- the so-called R rate -- is between 1.0 and 1.2 across the U.K., according to official figures published Friday. That means every 10 infected people spread the virus to another 10 to 12 people. The rate is lower than last week’s estimate of 1.1-1.3.

England is currently under its second national lockdown, with non-essential shops, pubs and restaurants closed for four weeks until Dec. 2, in order to curb the spread of the virus.

The latest figures offer a glimmer of hope that the most stringent restrictions will be eased for Christmas, in welcome news for shuttered businesses as well as the government. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wanted to avoid another lockdown and held out against one until modeling projected the health service would be overwhelmed without action.

The Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE), which advises the government on pandemic strategy, warned levels of coronavirus remain “very high.” The panel said “significant levels of healthcare demand and mortality will persist until R is reduced to and remains well below 1 for an extended period of time.”

SAGE said the R rate is lowest in northwest England, at 0.9-1.1, where some areas such as Manchester and Liverpool were already under tight restrictions due to a surge in cases before the nationwide lockdown was enforced on Nov. 5.

School infections

A separate study from the Office for National Statistics on Friday appeared to echo SAGE’s findings. The proportion of people testing positive for coronavirus in England has continued to rise, but more slowly than in the past, the ONS said.

The highest proportion of positive test results have been seen among secondary school-aged children, according to the ONS. This led teacher unions to call for more action on reducing transmission in schools, such as hiring extra space and staff to reduce class sizes.

The National Education Union said it is “concerned that the continued trajectory of infection rates in schools and colleges will make this lockdown much less effective, and not make the sacrifice worthwhile”.

Meanwhile, Johnson faces a major headache in a future public inquiry into his handling of the pandemic after Sally Davies, England’s former chief medical officer, said she plans to publicly accuse the government of being ill-prepared.

She told the Daily Telegraph that in 2015 she asked Public Health England whether the Government should rehearse for an outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) -- a coronavirus like Covid-19 -- but was assured the disease would “never travel this far in big numbers” from Asia.

Public Health England denied the claim and said the U.K. had prepared for “all health protection threats”.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.