Tories Lead Labour as Brexit Party Loses Ground, Polls Show

(Bloomberg) --

U.K. Conservatives remain ahead of Labour by at least 10 percentage points with less than three weeks to the general election, according to five different polls on national voting preferences released on Saturday. A separate analysis of recent polls indicates the Tories would win a 48-seat majority in parliament.

• Brexit Party lost 3 percentage points after its decision not to stand in more than half of seats, three of the surveys show.
• SNP seen taking 40% of vote in Scotland, Tories winning 28%
• The general election is Dec. 12.

Datapraxis Study

• Tories would win 349 of the 650 seats up for grabs, an increase of 57 seats from the 2017 election, according to analysis of YouGov polls by Datapraxis published in the Sunday Times
• Labour 213 (minus 30)
• Liberal Democrats 14 (minus 6)
• SNP 49 (plus 14)
• Plaid Cymru 5
• Greens 1
• Study also suggests that five big Tory names, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, are in danger of losing their seats if Britons vote tactically.

Panelbase Poll on Scotland

• 40% of Scots plan to vote SNP, according to poll for the Sunday Times
• Tories in second place with 28%
• Labor 20%

YouGov Poll

• Tories unchanged at 42%, YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows
• Labour unchanged at 30%
• Liberal Democrats up 1 point to 16%
• Brexit Party down 1 point to 3%
• SNP unchanged at 4%
• Greens unchanged at 4%
• Pollster surveyed 1,677 adults nationally Nov. 21-22

Savanta ComRes Poll

• Tories unchanged at 42%, according to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Daily Express Sunday edition
• Labour up 1 point to 32%
• Liberal Democrats unchanged at 15%
• Brexit Party unchanged at 5%
• SNP down 1 point to 3%
• Greens unchanged at 2%
• Pollster surveyed 2,038 British adults online Nov. 20-21

Deltapoll

• Conservatives at 43%, down 2 points, according to the most recent Deltapoll for The Mail on Sunday
• Labour unchanged at 30%
• Liberal Democrats up 5 points to 16%
• Brexit Party down 3 points to 3%
• Deltapoll interviewed 1,519 British adults online Nov. 21-23

Opinium Poll

• Opinium Research poll showed the Tories are now supported by 47% of voters, up from 44%
• Labour unchanged at 28%
• Liberal Democrats fall 2 points to 12%
• Brexit Party falls 3 points to 3%
• SNP rises 1 point to 5%
• Greens unchanged at 3%
• Perceptions of Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn have not improved in light of their first head-to-head debate on Nov. 19, Opinium said
• Pollster surveyed 2,003 U.K. adults nationally Nov. 20-22

BMG Poll

• Tories gained 4 points to 41%, according to the most recent BMG Research poll for The Independent
• Labour at 28%, down 1 point
• “The increase in the Conservative lead can be attributed to the Brexit Party’s decision not to stand in more than half of seats:” BMG’s head of polling Robert Struthers
• Liberal Democrats at 18%, up 2 points
• Greens unchanged at 5%
• Brexit Party at 3%, down 6 points
• Poll continues to show a majority support EU membership, with Remain leading Leave by 54% to 46%, unchanged from a week ago
• BMG surveyed 1,663 British voters Nov. 19-21

To contact the reporters on this story: Giulia Camillo in New York at gcamillo@bloomberg.net;Natasha Doff in Moscow at ndoff@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Giulia Camillo at gcamillo@bloomberg.net, Andrew Davis

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