Twilight of First Trump Term Gives Hope of Solving Balkan Puzzle
Twilight of First Trump Term Gives Hope of Solving Balkan Puzzle
(Bloomberg) -- As U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term draws to a close, a White House meeting this week on Kosovo may be Serbia’s best chance to secure an advantage in resolving one of Europe’s most enduring puzzles.
The conflict resulting from a war two decades ago and Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008 is no closer to resolution despite years of struggle to find an agreement at the negotiating table. Kosovo is demanding recognition as a sovereign state, which Serbia refuses to give.
After mediating a deal to establish ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates last month, the Trump administration is trying to rack up another win before the November U.S. election, inviting Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti to the White House on Thursday.
Belgrade is hoping that Trump, who has sought to shift the U.S. position on Balkan conflicts away from those of the Clinton era when NATO bombed the Serbs in the 1990s, may be able to put enough pressure to force a deal more in line with its wishes. While Trump’s envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Richard Grenell has said the meeting will focus on economic ties, hopes are high in the Balkans that Trump may make an appearance.
“This president is more inclined toward Serbia than any previous president of the U.S.,” Vucic told reporters in Belgrade last week. “We still don’t know what the agenda will be, except that we should talk about the economy. But the possibility that Mr. Trump may be present indicates there may be some other ideas as well.”
The chance of a breakthrough is slim, and the initiative from Washington has irked the European Union, which is mediating talks between the Balkan neighbors and says U.S. efforts are aimed at scoring a quick diplomatic victory rather than resolving the dispute. An earlier White House meeting was scrapped when Kosovar President Hashim Thaci was accused of war crimes, including nearly 100 murders, that he denies.
A special adviser to Trump, who asked not to be identified discussing internal deliberations, said Thursday’s talks would focus on three earlier agreements on establishing rail, road and air links between Serbia and Kosovo that have yet to go into effect. After years of political deadlock, the U.S. wants to test whether better economic links will lead to a breakthrough later on, the adviser said.
The adviser said Trump hadn’t yet decided whether to participate. The president’s decision will likely depend on how much progress is made Thursday.
A deal that normalizes ties is crucial for both Serbia and Kosovo to progress on the path toward EU membership, which they hope can end decades of economic underperformance and the exodus of millions of their citizens in search of better lives in richer countries.
At the heart of the dispute for Serbia is that recognizing Kosovo’s sovereignty would cause it to abandon its claim on monasteries and other sites that make up the historical heritage of to the powerful Serbian Orthodox Church. It would also cede influence over 100,000 ethnic Serbs in Kosovo, where most of the 1.8 million population is ethnic-Albanian.
That makes a straight-forward split a political non-starter for Vucic, who contends Serbia must receive something in return. He has called for autonomy to be granted to a northern ethnic-Serb region, which would effectively put it under Belgrade’s control.
Kosovo Premier Hoti has ruled out any territorial concession to Serbia. The EU has also rejected any redrawing of borders.
But Kosovo’s position is weaker now that Thaci is sidelined by the war-crimes accusations and Hoti is less popular than an incumbent premier he replaced in June. By comparison, Vucic’s ruling party won a landslide election victory in June.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Belgrade William Montgomery said Vucic is right to press Serbia’s case now with Trump in office given the possibility the U.S. leader could lose the November election.
“Vucic should act now or lose, possibly forever, a chance to resolve the issue,” he said.
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