Trump Scoops Up Fall TV Time as Biden Waits: 2020 Ad Wars
Trump Scoops Up Fall TV Time as Biden Waits: 2020 Ad Wars
(Bloomberg) -- Campaign spending on television advertising reveals a wealth of information on a candidate’s strength, Electoral College strategy and messaging tactics. Each week, Bloomberg News will take a look at the data about where and how Donald Trump, Joe Biden and key congressional candidates are spending their donors’ money on persuading voters to their side.
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Democratic nominee Joe Biden has yet to buy a single ad for the post-Labor Day home stretch of the long 2020 campaign, giving President Donald Trump a crucial advantage in messaging wars as voters begin to make up their minds.
Trump’s $144 million of early ad buys for September through Election Day show the hidden strength of Trump’s war chest, even as Biden has started to close the fundraising gap with the incumbent.
By buying ads in advance, Trump is locking in the most valuable markets and time slots and potentially blocking out competing advertisers like the Democratic nominee.
And he can do it at favorable rates. Federal Communications Commission rules require broadcasters to offer candidates for federal office — but not parties or super PACs — the lowest rate that they charge commercial advertisers in the same time slots. Ad rates can go up as the election approaches and demand increases.
Trump is counting on negative ads to close the gap against Biden, who now leads by an average of 9 points in national polls and is ahead in seven states Trump won in 2016.
“The Trump campaign has raised record amounts of money to ensure we can continue strategically targeting voters in key states and nationwide for the duration of the campaign,” said Trump campaign spokesman Hogan Gidley.
Trump started booking air time in late June for ads to run between Labor Day and the election, laying out $95 million worth of ads in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin, according to data from Advertising Analytics.
Many of those ads could be still be canceled and reallocated to other states as the trajectory of the campaign shifts.
Biden has yet to book any time beyond next week. A Biden-endorsed Super PAC, Priorities USA Action, has bought $38 million in ads after Labor Day, but Super PACs aren’t guaranteed the same favorable ad rates as candidates.
The Biden campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Mike Franz, co-director of the political ad-tracking Wesleyan Media Project, said Biden’s failure to buy ads could be strategic, but could also reflect his management of resources.
“Given his position in the polls currently, he may have more freedom to wait to see where those ads make the most sense. But he runs the risk of running into an inventory problem,” Franz said. “Trump has had more of a lead time in raising general election funds and is sitting on more cash, so he can do more with confidence.”
The 2012 election showed the power of early ad buying. Republican nominee Mitt Romney ended up spending 30% more for ads than President Barack Obama, but still aired fewer spots in less desirable demographics, according to an analysis by Kantar Media. That’s because Obama started booking his ad time much earlier than the challenger.
Trump’s advance ads provide a window into his campaign’s strategic thinking about the last weeks of the campaign. He’s booked time in many of the most competitive states, like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
But he’s also spending defensively in states he won handily in 2016, like Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio. And he’s making a play to win over three Democratic states: Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire.
So while Trump is telegraphing his strategy, Biden may be keeping his closer to the vest. “Everybody knows where Trump needs to win. Biden can afford to expand the field,” Franz said. “Sometimes ad buy strategies — they’re not genius.”
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