Trump’s Slipping Polls Make GOP Holding Senate More Daunting
An already close battle for control of the U.S. Senate is growing more daunting for Republicans.
(Bloomberg) -- An already close battle for control of the U.S. Senate is growing more daunting for Republicans.
Fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and mass protests against police brutality have driven down President Donald Trump’s poll numbers and threatens to bring down GOP incumbents with him, as Democrats look to expand a political map already tilted in their favor.
Trump and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell met privately on Wednesday to discuss the Senate races, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity. McConnell confirmed to reporters that he met with the president but gave no details.
“Ultimately Senate Republicans’ fate will be tied to Trump and he’ll be judged by this,” said Jessica Taylor, Senate editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “When you have a president who dominates the news cycle in every way, it is hard to separate yourself.”
The GOP is defending 23 Senate seats to just 12 for Democrats, with Democrats needing a net gain of at least three seats in November to take control of a chamber now divided 53-47 in Republicans’ favor.
Four Republicans have long been seen as the most vulnerable: Susan Collins in Maine, Cory Gardner in Colorado, Martha McSally in Arizona and Thom Tillis in North Carolina, while Republicans have a solid chance to retake the Alabama seat now held by Democrat Doug Jones.
But Trump’s declining approval ratings and a surge in polls by Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden are making it less likely the GOP will keep the majority -- and McConnell’s status as the self-styled “grim reaper” for proposals from the Democratic-led House. Trump’s approval rating fell to 39% in a Gallup poll conducted May 28 to June 4, down from 49% in the most recent poll and the lowest since October.
Republican candidates almost across the board in competitive races avoid talking about Trump’s daily controversies, emphasizing instead their support for initiatives important to their states such as the small-business Paycheck Protection Program in the virus recovery bill.
Races in Iowa and Georgia have become competitive, and the decision by Democratic Montana Governor Steve Bullock to run against Republican incumbent Steve Daines has added another marquee race.
GOP Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said Wednesday it’s too early to say whether Trump’s declining poll numbers will affect the race for Senate control.
“You can’t tell until after the conventions,” said Graham, who is on the ballot in November. “Polls are snapshots in time. If the economy continues to get better, they’ll come up.”
In early February, 70% of Americans described the state of the economy as good or excellent, according to a poll by Quinnipiac University. By the end of May amid the turmoil caused by the coronavirus, only 23% said so, while 74% called it not so good or poor. And 55% of those polled by Quinnipiac said the economy is getting worse.
Trump’s grip on Republican voters has GOP incumbents wary of putting too much distance between themselves and the president. Only a few incumbents who aren’t on the ballot this year were publicly critical of Trump’s threat to use the U.S. military to quell violence and looting after the death of a black man, George Floyd, at the hands of Minneapolis police and the clearing of protesters near the White House for a photo op.
Warning to Republicans
Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski leveled the sharpest criticism, saying last week that she agreed with the scathing critique of Trump by former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and that she was struggling with whether to support the president in November. That triggered a Trump tweet with a promise that he would show up in Alaska in 2022 to campaign against her, a not so subtle warning to other Republicans.
Collins and Gardner, the only two Senate Republicans running for re-election in states won by Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, have broken with Trump and GOP leadership on the need for $500 billion in aid to state and local governments to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus.
But it’s a low-risk stance that’s unlikely to draw Trump’s wrath. Before a Memorial Day recess, Collins called for the Senate to act immediately. And Gardner made but then backed down from a threat to withhold his consent to adjourn for the break, though he got a commitment from McConnell to put his bipartisan public lands bill on the Senate floor this week.
Gardner said he expects to get more local aid eventually.
“Our states, our local governments have been decimated as has the economy writ large. So we need to make sure we have the ability and resources to meet those needs, and I’m confident that we’ll pass it,” he said in a telephone interview.
The Democratic opponents of Gardner and Collins have tried to tie them to Trump and McConnell.
“He seems happy to do whatever Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump say, not what’s best for Colorado,” former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, the leading Democratic contender to oppose Gardner, said in a statement.
Plea to Pompeo
And in other states, Republicans face growing obstacles. Trump’s personal plea to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to run for the seat of retiring Kansas Senator Pat Roberts didn’t bear fruit. Senate Republican leaders worry the potential nomination of immigration hardliner and failed 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach could cost the GOP a seat.
The Montana race between Daines and Bullock emerged as one of the year’s toughest contests after the Democratic governor entered it in early March. And in Georgia, where two GOP-held seats are on the ballot, Senator David Perdue’s race was recently re-rated competitive by the Cook Political Report. A bitter primary fight between incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler and Republican Representative Doug Collins gives Democrats some hope to win Georgia’s other seat.
Both sides are pouring resources into the high-stakes fight for Senate control. In late April, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm reserved millions of dollars in TV and digital advertising in four states. That includes $7.3 million in Iowa looking to topple Joni Ernst, $6.4 million in Arizona, $5.2 million in Montana and $11.7 million in North Carolina.
Republicans are mounting an expanded game of defense. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super-PAC aligned with McConnell, this month reserved $10.1 million for radio and TV air time in Montana. In March, the group announced it reserved a total of $67.1 million for TV ads in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Kentucky, where McConnell himself will be on the ballot.
Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said it’s “a very volatile political environment” but predicted Democratic candidates would face tougher times ahead.
“A lot of these Democrats haven’t had much money spent against them yet and once their records are litigated voter opinion will turn against them,” he said.
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