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Trump’s Impeachment Defense Rests on Narrow Gap in Testimony

Trump’s Impeachment Defense Rests on Narrow Gap in Testimony

(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump’s impeachment defense hangs by a thread after two weeks of House hearings, as a parade of witnesses described how his efforts to pressure Ukraine to investigate Democratic rival Joe Biden extended well beyond the two leaders’ July 25 telephone call.

Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, a decorated Army officer and Ukraine expert, recalled raising concerns to the top lawyer at the National Security Council over what he viewed as Trump’s inappropriate political demand on that call for a Biden probe.

Vindman’s former boss, Fiona Hill, testified she came to understand that Gordon Sondland, the U.S. ambassador to the European Union, had been tasked by Trump with a “political errand” in Ukraine outside of regular U.S. foreign policy. And Sondland, a Trump donor, told lawmakers that the president, through his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, ordered him to carry out a “quid pro quo.”

Trump’s Impeachment Defense Rests on Narrow Gap in Testimony

Witnesses warned the House Intelligence Committee in grave terms that the pursuit of dirt on Biden was wrong, undermined U.S. foreign policy efforts and wasn’t rooted in a sincere effort to crack down on corruption or criminal activity in Ukraine. And they criticized the president’s Republican allies for trying to justify his behavior by promoting debunked conspiracy theories they said had no grounding in fact.

Trump’s Impeachment Defense Rests on Narrow Gap in Testimony

And yet one key piece of Trump’s defense remains intact: None of the witnesses, including Sondland, testified that the president himself directly ordered them to make explicit to the Ukrainians that American military aid and a meeting with Trump depended on their president announcing investigations. Indeed, when Sondland confronted Trump on Sept. 9 -- after the administration learned a whistle-blower complaint had been filed -- the president denied wanting anything from Ukraine.

He has forbidden witnesses who might have first-hand knowledge of his Ukraine intentions from testifying. Speaking to the “Fox and Friends” program early Friday, Trump said: “I think it’s very hard for them to impeach when they have absolutely nothing.”

The President’s Men

Absence of evidence of a direct order from Trump may be all that matters to Republican senators increasingly likely to face the ultimate question of whether to remove the president from office. But it’s a gamble for Trump, who appears to be relying on a quartet of men to hold the line and follow orders not to testify.

  • Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney has already admitted during a White House briefing that the aid was held up in part to get Ukraine to investigate a conspiracy theory that the country interfered with the 2016 U.S. election, only to recant his statements. Mulvaney’s standing in the White House fell over the initial handling of the impeachment crisis, as well as his battles with White House Counsel Pat Cipollone over strategy. But he may now be indispensable to the president.
  • Giuliani gave several media interviews and wrote tweets pressuring Ukraine to investigate the Bidens. Trump told a trio of aides to listen to Giuliani on Ukraine, effectively bringing the pressure campaign inside his administration. And Giuliani’s name came up in the July phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
  • Secretary of State Michael Pompeo listened in on that call. Sondland testified Pompeo gave him the green light in emails detailing an effort to seek Zelenskiy’s backing for investigations sought by Trump in hopes of breaking a “logjam” that was preventing them from obtaining diplomatic concessions.
  • John Bolton, the president’s former national security adviser, is perhaps the most dangerous potential witness for Trump. Bolton’s aides testified that he referred to Giuliani as a “hand grenade” and disdainfully labeled the Ukraine intrigues a “drug deal.” Bolton has also split with the president on several key foreign policy areas, including North Korea.

All four were mentioned numerous times in impeachment testimony to date, and all four had direct lines to the president. For now, Mulvaney, Pompeo and Giuliani have said they’ll follow Trump’s directive not to take part in the inquiry. Bolton has said he wants a court to decide.

Beyond that quartet, the witnesses also provided Democrats with a roadmap to find other potentially devastating documents -- if they can gain access to them.

Laura Cooper, the Pentagon’s Russia-Ukraine expert, said there were emails that hadn’t been turned over to the committee that undermined the White House’s claim that Ukraine was unaware the military aid had been frozen as diplomats were pressing for the Biden investigation.

David Holmes, a Foreign Service officer who works in Kyiv, testified that Trump, in an overheard phone call with Sondland, asked explicitly whether Zelenskiy would do “the investigations” the day after the July 25 phone call. Moreover, Holmes said, Sondland told him Trump didn’t care about Ukraine, just the investigations that could benefit him politically.

And Hill, who worked in the Trump White House for two-and-a-half years, chastised Republicans for buying into a “fictional narrative” propagated by Russian security services that Ukraine rather than Moscow interfered in the 2016 U.S. election. Republicans on the committee attempted to rebut her assertions.

Fast Timeline

The president is also shielded somewhat by Democrats’ desire to move quickly.

Worried that a prolonged impeachment proceeding could drag into the 2020 campaign season -- and that a legal battle might ultimately prove fruitless with a conservative-leaning Supreme Court -- Democrats have decided to largely forgo a court battle over subpoenas that would force those officials to testify or produce documents.

Trump’s Impeachment Defense Rests on Narrow Gap in Testimony

That means that if a smoking gun exists -- whether in the testimony of the president’s closest aides, or what’s spelled out in White House, State Department, or Pentagon memos on the suspended military assistance -- Democrats might never obtain it.

It’s also unclear that the revelation Trump had directly ordered the quid pro quo would matter, considering the hyperpartisan fever that has gripped Washington.

Trump, in particular, has time and again tested his Republican allies -- with the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape during the campaign, his remarks in the wake of the violence in Charlottesville, his performance at a joint press conference last year with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, and his recent withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. In each case, his party has remained loyal.

The president has sought to shore up support from Republicans in the Senate who will ultimately control his fate if the House votes to impeach him. He has invited more than three dozen senators to the White House in recent weeks, and on Thursday hosted some of the Republican lawmakers most likely to consider voting for his removal: Mitt Romney of Utah and Susan Collins of Maine. Both rebuked Trump for publicly encouraging China to investigate the Bidens.

A White House spokesman said Thursday night that a Senate trial is “clearly the only chamber” where the president “can expect fairness and receive due process under the Constitution.”

The meetings with senators -- and Trump’s incessant tweeting -- likely betray concern within the White House that the president is losing the public opinion battle. A survey from FiveThirtyEight and Ipsos released this week found that 56% of Americans now believe the president has committed an impeachable offense.

And the White House recently brought in two new aides -- former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi and ex-Treasury Department spokesman Tony Sayegh -- to help coordinate impeachment communications efforts.

But the president’s tweets also indicated confidence that he may have -- narrowly -- weathered the storm, with the proceedings soon shifting to the upper chamber where his allies have remained loyal.

“We are winning big, and they will soon be on our turf,” Trump wrote.

--With assistance from Nick Wadhams.

To contact the reporters on this story: Steven T. Dennis in Washington at sdennis17@bloomberg.net;Justin Sink in Washington at jsink1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Kevin Whitelaw at kwhitelaw@bloomberg.net, Joshua Gallu, Alex Wayne

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