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Trump Pitches Wartime President for 2020 After Markets Fail Him

Trump Pitches ‘Wartime President’ for 2020 as Markets Fail Him

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump declared himself a “wartime president” on Wednesday, his latest attempt to influence public perception of his handling of a coronavirus outbreak that is swiftly reshaping the presidential campaign.

It came on the same day that the stock market nearly erased all the gains since Trump was inaugurated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost more than 30% of its value in just over a month, putting the rally that began on Election Day in jeopardy. The S&P 500 fell as much as 9.8% on Wednesday before a late-session bounce, and bonds tumbled around the world.

A strong American economy has always been Trump’s primary case for re-election and he has often touted the rising stock market as a sign of his success. But that argument is gone now with the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Trump Pitches Wartime President for 2020 After Markets Fail Him

“The economy was the main strength of the argument to the American people that he deserved a second term,” said Matthew Continetti, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “He’s deprived of that argument. It doesn’t matter if he’s responsible for it. He’s not. But that won’t really matter to voters if we have high levels of unemployment” and a recession.

Trump Pitches Wartime President for 2020 After Markets Fail Him

Trump abandoned past presidents’ reticence to comment on every rise and fall of the markets, since they have almost no control over the numbers. Trump, by contrast, treated it as a numerical sign of his personal and political success and held it out as a tangible way that voters benefited from him being in office, through their investments and 401(k)s.

The shift to military language to describe his administration’s battle against an “invisible enemy” is a tougher sell, especially following his struggle to get the initial response to the coronavirus right, including weeks where he sought to downplay its severity. But it is one that fits his natural approach to campaigning.

“His instinct is to be aggressive, his instinct is to frame things in terms of America versus others or versus a threat,” said Daron Shaw, a political science professor at the University of Texas-Austin.

“Identifying the virus as the enemy and talking about this in combat terms. I think that’s smart politics and is probably appropriate. It suits him and it’s probably not the worst thing politically, either, to talk in these terms,” Shaw said.

Response to his handling of the coronavirus crisis has mirrored his polarized presidency. An NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll released Tuesday showed that 49% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus and 44% approve.

The results of Tuesday’s Democratic primaries made it all but certain that Trump will face former Vice President Joe Biden in the fall. Biden has received high marks, even from Republicans, for speeches in which he lays out how he would handle the crisis if he were president.

At a White House news conference, Trump invoked measures taken during World War II, saying workers refused to go home, slept on factory floors and built ships “and now it’s our time, we must sacrifice together because we are all in this together. We’ll come through together.”

Trump Pitches Wartime President for 2020 After Markets Fail Him

Americans tend to rally around a wartime president, as they did around George W. Bush in the aftermath of 9/11, but Americans have been particularly polarized in recent years, so the “rules of yesterday” may not be applicable, said Rob Jesmer, a Republican strategist.

The virus has also deprived the president of his signature rallies, where he reinforces the support of his most ardent voters. He is instead left to Twitter and the White House briefing room, where he had rarely appeared previously.

“The way that President Trump handles the coronavirus situation and what happens with the economy will determine what happens in” November, said Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist. “The incumbent has an advantage but with that advantage goes with both the opportunity to shine and flub it.”

China Warning

Trump’s campaign sent an email to supporters Wednesday, saying “China’s Foreign Ministry is pushing online conspiracy theories specifically intended to undermine the fact that the Wuhan coronavirus originated in China.”

“That’s definitely red meat for the base,” said Tammy Vigil, a professor of communication at Boston University. “It certainly makes it seem like we’re being invaded by these outsiders. It’s certainly messaging for the base, but also something that he believes, this external threat.”

Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist, says that voters “outside the Beltway” are likely to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, since a pandemic is outside of his control.

“They’re really viewing this with the stock market and economically and that this is likely to pass,” Bonjean said.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.