Trump Notches Wins to Fuel Campaign Before Impeachment Trial

(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump has kicked off the 2020 election year with a string of key foreign policy and economic wins that his campaign hopes will overshadow -- and outlast -- the political fallout from his historic impeachment.

As the Senate began his impeachment trial on Tuesday in Washington, Trump tried to pull the spotlight to Davos, Switzerland, where he touted his record to an annual gathering of global elites: “America is thriving, America is flourishing, and yes, America is winning again like never before,” he said.

Trump’s argument has been bolstered by a series of recent victories. He inked a long-sought “phase one” trade deal with China, the Senate passed his rewrite of Nafta, and he ordered the killing of a top Iranian general without immediately tipping the U.S. into another war in the Middle East.

All three events occurred within a two-week period, helping push the stock market to record highs and giving Trump clear talking points for the argument that his confrontational approach to China and Iran is working. Adding to the list, Trump on Tuesday indicated he had secured a truce with French President Emmanuel Macron in their dispute over digital taxes, and said he’s confident he can reach a trade deal with the European Union.

Trump’s victories may still sour. His U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is regarded as a modest revision of Nafta that required considerable concessions to Democrats in order to win the House’s approval. His deal with China includes limited reform commitments by Beijing and what many experts regard as an improbable commitment for $200 billion in purchases of U.S. goods, while leaving tariffs in place on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports.

And while the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani elicited limited retaliation from Tehran, the Islamic Republic may seek further reprisals and is now seen as less likely to enter negotiations with the U.S. over ending its nuclear program and support for militants and terrorists.

Confidence Boost

Nonetheless, the run appears to be boosting Trump’s confidence. Last week, he spoke at length and unscripted during a ceremony to sign the China deal, comparing himself favorably to Ronald Reagan and Abraham Lincoln and gleefully shouting out corporate executives and wealthy supporters in his audience.

Speaking to reporters after a dinner with Trump and other business leaders in Davos, Volkswagen AG Chief Executive Officer Herbert Diess said that the president “appeared more confident” and secure following the economy’s recent performance.

On Wednesday, Trump also appeared emboldened by his recent deals. Speaking in Davos, Trump put European leaders on notice about reaching a trade deal before the U.S. elections. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on European auto exports and has already hit $7.5 billion of EU exports with levies over an airline dispute.

But Trump’s optimism will be met with the harsh reality of a bitter impeachment fight when he returns to Washington on Wednesday.

Senate Democrats and Republicans spent most of Tuesday debating the rules of the trial to determine whether Trump should be removed from office. While Democrats have pushed to include additional witnesses and documents, Republicans -- led by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell -- have indicated they’re intent on a speedy acquittal of the president.

“The Senate GOP Leader has chosen a cover-up for the President, rather than honor his oath to the Constitution,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said. Representative Adam Schiff, the Lead House trial manager, said the process proposed by McConnell would lead to a “rigged trial.”

Polling suggests Trump’s recent victories are so far having limited impact on public opinion. A survey by CNN released on the eve of the trial showed that a majority of Americans -- 51% -- support the Senate voting to remove the president from office.

The trial could still produce surprises, but Trump’s acquittal is almost guaranteed in the majority-Republican chamber. And defeating Democrats’ impeachment efforts could leave Trump emboldened as he heads into Congress to make his State of the Union address next month.

Provided he’s acquitted, Trump will surely turn his impeachment saga into more red meat for a political base that thrives on grievance.

‘Good One Now’

Trump hasn’t wasted any time in claiming victory. He swiftly added the Soleimani killing to his script at campaign events, boasting at a Milwaukee rally Jan. 9 that the general “was responsible for murdering and wounding thousands of Americans and was actively planning new attacks, and we stopped him cold.”

He provided details of the killing that previously hadn’t been made public to wealthy donors at a fund-raiser at his Palm Beach, Florida resort on January 17, according to the Washington Post, which obtained a partial recording of the event.

Trump seizes any opportunity to talk about the passage of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement and the China deal, which could together add three-quarters of a percentage point to growth, according to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

He boasted about the deals in Davos to an audience of global business leaders who are generally seen as pro-trade although one critic, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, circulated a memo to delegates challenging Trump’s economic record.

But the president also took the opportunity to claim credit for the economy last week when he met the 2019 NCAA champion football team from Louisiana State University.

As he invited the players and coaches to take photos in the Oval Office, Trump expressed his characteristic disbelief that Democrats have tried to remove him from office despite the soaring U.S. stock market and economic growth.

“We’ll take pictures behind the Resolute Desk. It’s been there a long time. A lot of presidents -- some good, some not so good,” Trump said. “But you got a good one now, even though they’re trying to impeach the son of a bitch. Can you believe that?”

To contact the reporter on this story: Josh Wingrove in Washington at jwingrove4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Wayne at awayne3@bloomberg.net, Joshua Gallu, Elizabeth Wasserman

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