Trump Deal Spells Danger at the Border as Waves of Migrants Arrive in Mexico
Trump Deal Spells Danger at the Border as Waves of Migrants Arrive in Mexico
(Bloomberg) -- For the last four months, Miguel, his wife Rides, and their 9-year-old son have been sleeping on bare plywood slapped together into a triple bunk-bed, as they await their U.S. asylum hearing from a shelter in Mexico.
Miguel said he and his family fled El Salvador after MS-13 beat him up and threatened to kill him if he didn’t join the international crime gang. Forced by the U.S. to wait in Tijuana, Miguel says he has received more threatening phone calls that he fears leave him vulnerable in Mexico.
A mile and a half away from the shelter, Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador held a rally Saturday where he praised a deal struck with President Donald Trump that averts tariffs. But it also allows the U.S. to send tens of thousands more Central American asylum seekers back into Mexico.
Mexico has promised to dramatically ramp up immigration enforcement at a time when migrant caravans and asylum seekers bound for the U.S. have already stretched detention centers and shelters on both side of the Mexico-U.S. border to their limits. In an effort to stop the influx of migrants heading north that saw Trump threaten to impose escalating tariffs, Mexico has offered to deploy its newly formed national guard to its southern border.
‘Thin and Exposed’
But the U.S. had as many as 97,000 applicants awaiting court dates in 2018, and cities like Tijuana are bracing themselves for another wave of asylum-seekers. Waylaying applicants in dangerous border cities in Mexico for months puts them in peril, a U.S. District judge in San Francisco said in April in blocking the so-called Remain in Mexico policy, only to have a federal appeals court last month rule that the measure could continue pending appeals.
Accepting far more than the 10,000 asylum seekers currently estimated to be in Mexico will exert increasing financial pressure on Latin America’s second-biggest economy, already coping with slowing growth and pinched budgets, according to Goldman Sachs.
"There is the risk of tensions in Mexican border communities, as this could put pressure on local social services," writes Goldman’s Alberto Ramos. "Furthermore, diverting limited security forces and law and order assets to both borders may leave other parts of the country thin and exposed in term of security."
Lopez Obrador’s rally Saturday, originally called so the president could respond to Trump’s tariff threat, took on a celebratory air as the crisis was averted. The peso’s almost complete rebound Monday underscores just how meaningful the deal was for Mexico.
‘Why Look for Danger?’
Speaking to thousands of supporters, Lopez Obrador pledged "as of next week we’ll be offering humanitarian aid, employment opportunities, education, health and well-being to those who wait for their asylum requests in Mexico in order to legally enter the U.S."
For now, Miguel is unemployed, Rides earns $6 for a five-day work week at a laundromat, well below minimum wage. Their son isn’t in school and they know of no lawyer or translator to help them fill out the necessary paperwork for their August court date.
"We received a phone call saying ‘we know where you are,’ " said Rides, referring to the same gang members who had threatened her husband in El Salvador. "We don’t leave the shelter. Why look for danger if that’s what we’re running from?"
Tijuana has had an especially difficult time with the influx of Central American migrants. Adding thousands of Central Americans to the already packed city met angry resistance from some city dwellers, forcing authorities to house them in a sports complex that late last year became a muddy, unsanitary, tent city home for thousands. Local residents demonstrated against their presence and two underage migrants were killed in the crime-filled border town.
On the Ground
This past Saturday, Cecilia Ivich stood outside her hair salon to support Mexico’s president as he was mobbed by fans snapping selfies and waving flags at the rally. But even she worries Mexico’s concessions to accept thousands seeking asylum in the U.S. could push Tijuana to a breaking point.
"Mexico and Tijuana are willing to help, but we need to be realistic if we’re talking about too many people," she said, recalling the influx in November. "Things can spin out of control."
Jose Maria Garcia, who runs a Tijuana shelter filled to capacity called Movimiento Juventud 2000, says Mexico’s new government withdrew most help to immigration organizations as it revamps its aid network to weed out corruption. But if funds don’t resume soon, organizations will be forced to demand help to attend to returned asylum seekers, he said. Bloomberg reported that amid AMLO’s austerity measures, Mexico’s National Immigration Institute in the first quarter spent half as much money as it did a year earlier.
Beyond the economic costs, concessions made by the Mexican authorities could be politically costly for Lopez Obrador, Goldman’s Ramos says. His "political support base is not particularly engaged or energized by Central America asylum and migration."
--With assistance from Andrea Navarro.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nacha Cattan in Mexico City at ncattan@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Carlos Manuel Rodriguez at carlosmr@bloomberg.net, Robert Jameson
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