Trump-District Democrats Tie Political Fate to Impeachment Vote

(Bloomberg) -- Nearly every one of the nearly three dozen Democrats who represent districts Donald Trump won in 2016 voted to impeach him Wednesday -- and many acknowledged they could be thrown out of office next November because of it.

Heading into the vote, some Democrats had spoken of pursuing a milder censure vote, or perhaps even casting a no vote on impeachment. In the end, 28 of the 31 stood with their fellow Democrats on both articles of impeachment, a statement on the potency of partisan unity in Washington even as their votes risked making them look out of step with voters at home.

“To be honest with you, if this was a political calculation then I wouldn’t have come out for an inquiry and I wouldn’t be voting yes on the articles,” Michigan Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who flipped a Republican-held seat last year, told reporters this week. She had just returned to Washington from her district where she was jeered by Trump supporters at a town hall.

Anger with Trump drove Democratic voters to the polls in 2018 and cost Republicans the majority. Now Republicans are counting on impeachment generating a similar reaction among their voters in 2020 to regain control of the chamber.

GOP-aligned outside groups are already blitzing the districts of vulnerable Democrats with campaign ads centered on impeachment. American Action Network, a conservative advocacy group, on Wednesday launched a $2.5 million television and digital campaign targeting Democrats from districts Trump won in 2016 who voted for impeachment.

Read More: Trump Impeached on Two Counts by House, Setting Up Senate Trial

Trump also has been keying in on House races as he campaigns for re-election. As the House voted, he was holding a rally Battle Creek, Michigan, which is represented by Justin Amash, an outspoken Trump critic who left the GOP to become an independent and voted for impeachment. Battle Creek also is less than an hour from Slotkin’s district, which backed the president with 51% of the vote in 2016.

Narrow Majority

The National Republican Congressional Committee plans to make the impeachment vote a centerpiece of the 2020 campaign, spokesman Michael McAdams said.

“These people are going to be reminded day in and day out about their vote to impeach the president,” he said. McAdams predicted that all 55 Democrats who the NRCC has targeted next year will lose their seats because of the vote.

“These people pledged to work with President Trump,” he said. “Voters in their districts do not favor impeachment.”

McAdams’s forecast may be optimistic, but losing just 18 seats would cost House Speaker Nancy Pelosi her majority.

David Wasserman, the House editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said he still forecasts that Democrats will retain their House majority, given Trump’s ability to generate controversy, a redrawn map in North Carolina, GOP retirements and the lack of strong challengers in key districts so far. But he said vulnerable Democrats have a challenge ahead.

“These Democrats in Trump districts, like Anthony Brindisi of New York, Kendra Horn of Oklahoma and Joe Cunningham, were in a no-win situation,” he said. “They have to retain their base to have any hope of re-election while appealing to a share of Trump voters.”

Democratic Strategy

House Democratic leaders argue that the political fallout will be limited. Most national polls find the public evenly split over Trump’s impeachment, and it doesn’t rank at the top of voter concerns.

Pelosi has said the next election, like the midterms, will be decided on health care and similar issues. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the political arm of House Democrats, plans to focus on what it sees as a trust gap among voters between Democrats and Republicans on health care.

That’s fine with Democrats in swing districts, like first-term Representative Susan Wild of Pennsylvania, who said she’s “anxious to put this day behind us.”

“The number one issue for me is prescription drug prices, and that is what I hear about in my district every single day,” Wild said. “I still don’t think we are past the threat of losing coverage for pre-existing conditions.”

Party leaders say that Trump’s persistently low approval ratings -- he has never topped 46% in Gallup’s monthly poll -- a raft of Republican retirements and the continuing drift of suburban voters toward Democrats will work in their favor.

“We’re going to pick up seats next year -- six seats we think we can pick up in Texas,” Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told reporters Tuesday.

Faith in Pelosi

The nearly united Democratic vote in favor of the two articles is a testament to the faith House Democrats have put in Pelosi’s political judgment, a year after many of them suggested someone else should lead the House.

Pelosi worked overtime this month to ensure impeachment was not the only major vote the House took before they recess for the holidays.

This week alone, the House passed a $1.4 trillion spending package replete with tax provisions like a biodiesel credit crucial to two vulnerable Iowa Democrats, Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne. Legislation to reduce prescription drug prices got a vote last week, along with a bipartisan agricultural-workers bill and the annual defense policy measure.

The House will end this week by voting to approve Trump’s top legislative priority: the long-stalled U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

“Landing this trade deal means that House Democrats can head home for the holidays with a big bipartisan accomplishment that has a direct impact on workers, businesses and farmers in their districts,” said Meredith Kelly, a Democratic strategist who served as communications director for the party’s 2018 House campaign effort.

Pelosi has also set up a May deadline for striking a bipartisan deal to reduce drug prices ahead of the 2020 election.

Democratic No Votes

Not all Democrats were on board with impeachment. Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson, a Minnesota Democrat in the most pro-Trump district held by a Democrat, voted against the articles of impeachment. He has said there is not enough evidence to impeach Trump.

New Jersey’s Jeff Van Drew also voted against both articles and had told staff he plans to switch parties later this week. Maine Democrat Jared Golden voted for the abuse of power article but against the obstruction article, arguing that the House should have pursued Trump in court to compel testimony from officials before impeaching him over the issue.

Hawaii Democrat Tulsi Gabbard, who is seeking the 2020 Democratic nomination for president but is polling near the bottom of the field, voted present on both articles. She represents a safe Democratic district.

Most of the vulnerable Democrats stuck to the message that they had no choice but impeach Trump, due to the gravity of his actions regarding Ukraine.

“Already, deep-pocketed dark money groups are spending staggering amounts of money in my Pennsylvania district, attempting to tell a different story about my record — painting me as a crazed partisan, hellbent on impeachment,” moderate Matt Cartwright wrote in a USA TODAY essay Monday. “In the end, I took only one oath — the one to support, uphold and defend our Constitution. And even though it may be deeply unpopular at times, I intend to remain faithful to it.”

(Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, has donated $10 million to House Democrats for impeachment defense advertisements and is himself a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination.)

--With assistance from Sahil Kapur, Emily Wilkins and Greg Giroux.

To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Wasson in Washington at ewasson@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Joe Sobczyk at jsobczyk@bloomberg.net, Anna Edgerton

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