Trader’s Guide to the Brexit Action in U.K. Parliament Today

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered an historic defeat in Parliament and the showdown over Brexit continues today in the House of Commons.

The pound gained by the most in almost two weeks as investor concerns over a no-deal Brexit eased following Johnson’s defeat. Ten-year gilt yields rose 10 basis points, set for the biggest one-day increase in over a year.

Here’s what to watch out for in another action-packed day in Westminster. Local times in London and provisional.

  • 12 p.m. Johnson is taking questions in the lower chamber.
  • 12.45 p.m. Chancellor Sajid Javid announces spending plans. Read more about that here.
  • 3 p.m. A group of parliamentarians seeking to avoid a no deal Brexit will take control of the order paper. Labour lawmaker Hilary Benn will present a bill requiring the prime minister to seek a three-month Brexit extension to Jan. 31. If passed, the only way he could avoid a delay would be to get Parliament’s approval for a no-deal Brexit or a divorce deal by Oct. 19. Read more about it here.
  • 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. The bill is debated and MPs will be able to propose amendments.
  • 5 p.m. The bill is examined in detail and then the deputy speaker will select amendments.
  • 7 p.m. Vote:
    • The pound may strengthen further if Parliament takes another step toward forcing Johnson to seek a Brexit delay. Investors are already seeking to hedge a potential departure from the EU in January, with Credit Agricole seeing more demand for volatility into that deadline.
  • 9 p.m. Depending on parliamentary business and points of order, Johnson will move a motion for an early election. This would be followed by a 90-minute debate.
  • 10.30 p.m. MPs may vote on whether to hold an early election. Johnson needs a two-thirds majority to pass. If it does, the next step would be for Johnson to select the poll date and ask the Queen to confirm it:
    • This motion passing would shock the markets, after the opposition said they wouldn’t back an election until the Brexit delay passes into law
    • The pound could test $1.2015 on an election, before the $1.1841 flash crash low of 2016 comes into focus, Stuart Bennett, a strategist at Banco Santander SA, said earlier this week.

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