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Johnson Faces Showdown with Parliament on No Deal: Brexit Update

Tory Rivals to Face Off as Rebels Plot Next Move: Brexit Update

(Bloomberg) -- Members of Britain’s House of Commons voted to back a plan designed to prevent the next prime minister forcing through a no-deal Brexit against the wishes of Parliament. The result was dramatic: Dominic Grieve’s amendment was passed by just one vote.

Key Developments:

  • Parliament backed amendment that aims to stop the next PM suspending the legislature to push through no-deal, by the narrowest possible margin: 294 votes to 293
  • Leadership favorite Boris Johnson declines to say if he would quit if he fails to deliver Brexit by his "do or die" deadline of Oct. 31
  • Johnson and leadership rival Jeremy Hunt go head-to-head in ITV debate
  • Labour backs a new referendum on any exit deal, and would campaign to stay in EU rather than leave on terms negotiated by the Tories

Johnson Open to Suspending Parliament (8:30 p.m.)

In a punchy response, Johnson insisted he will not rule out the radical step of suspending Parliament in order to deliver Brexit on time. Hunt earlier said he would not contemplate such a move. A previous suspension of Parliament resulted in a "civil war," Hunt said.

Johnson Faces Showdown with Parliament on No Deal: Brexit Update

Johnson, the favorite, said he would not "take anything off the table" in his determination to deliver on the vote of the 2016 referendum campaign. That sets up a potentially major conflict with MPs, who earlier voted to back a move to stop the next prime minister suspending Parliament in order to force through a no-deal Brexit.

Johnson Won’t Promise He’ll Quit if Brexit Delayed (8:15 p.m.)

Boris Johnson refuses to say if he’d resign if he failed to take the U.K. out of the EU by Oct. 31 -- the deadline he has repeatedly said must be met. Asked repeatedly by his opponent Jeremy Hunt, Johnson said making such a pledge would weaken his negotiating position.

"I don’t want to hold out to the EU the prospect that they might encourage my resignation to come out of the deal," he said, appearing in the ITV televised leadership debate.

Hunt responded: "My worry is that you’re setting a fake deadline because we’ll end up with an election before we have Brexit."

MPs Vote to Stop PM Forcing Through No-Deal (7:38 p.m.)

MPs have moved to stop the next prime minister attempting to force through a no-deal Brexit against their wishes by suspending Parliament. The plan went through by just a single vote.

The Commons voted by 294 to 293 in favor of the amendment from Conservative MP Dominic Grieve. This requires Parliament to meet between September and December.

The significance is less about whether Parliament can be suspended, and more because it shows some Conservative MPs are willing to act block a no-deal Brexit.

Boris Johnson has said he won’t rule out suspending Parliament if it’s the only way to ensure Brexit is delivered on time by the deadline of Oct. 31. Such a move would create a huge constitutional row. Tuesday’s vote suggests the next prime minister could find he has less room for maneuver than he expects on Brexit.

Parliament Backs Gay Marriage in N. Ireland (5:30 p.m.)

The U.K. Parliament has voted to introduce gay marriage and liberalize abortion rules in Northern Ireland. These moves are both opposed by the Democratic Unionist Party, which props up the Conservative government.

But with the Northern Ireland Assembly suspended amid political deadlock, MPs in London are taking the opportunity to push through measures that they support. The vote doesn’t immediately change the law on either issue, but the government said it would follow the will of Parliament.

Government to Oppose Grieve Plan to Stop No-Deal (4:35 p.m.)

The government will oppose the Grieve amendment (see 1:30 p.m.) which would require a minister to report to Parliament fortnightly from October, a person familiar with the matter said. The proposal aims to make it harder for the next prime minister to suspend Parliament to force through a no-deal Brexit.

Ireland Says No-Deal Brexit Could Mean Harder Border (4 p.m.)

In its latest update of contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit, the Irish government said the backstop agreed with Theresa May is the“only viable solution on the table” that avoids a hard border, including physical infrastructure and related checks and controls.

It added that discussions with the European Commission with a view to minimizing the negative consequences of no deal are on-going, but any arrangement will clearly be “sub-optimal,” and no one has yet come up with any alternatives that meet the same goals as the Withdrawal Agreement.

Corbyn Avoids Setting Election Position on Brexit (3:30 p.m.)

Jeremy Corbyn avoided an opportunity to explain what Labour’s Brexit policy would be in a general election. Instead, in a BBC interview, he focused on the party’s approach now.

As things stand, he said, Labour supports a second referendum, in which it would campaign against Brexit. However, he argued this doesn’t make Labour an anti-Brexit party.

“We respect the result of the referendum,’’ he said. “We’ll decide our policy when the election comes. But at this moment we will do everything we can to prevent no deal and give people a choice whether it’s that or remain within the EU.’’

Labour to Support Grieve Amendments (3 p.m.)

Labour will tell its members of Parliament to vote for the amendments proposed by Tory backbencher Dominic Grieve, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The proposed amendments to the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill in effect would open up the new prime minster to a legal challenge if he chooses to suspend Parliament.

Johnson Faces Showdown with Parliament on No Deal: Brexit Update

Johnson Joins Trump’s Attack on May’s Brexit Deal (2:35 p.m.)

Boris Johnson added his voice to Donald Trump’s criticism of Theresa May’s approach to Brexit, saying there’s a chance to do things differently and get away from the “failed old can-kicking approach,” according to comments from a pooled interview distributed by the Press Association.

Asked whether the president was right to criticize May’s approach to the talks, Johnson replied: “I have said some pretty critical things about the Brexit negotiations so far and that’s one of the reasons I am standing tonight and one of the reasons I am putting myself forward.”

What the Amendments Mean (1:30 p.m.)

The pound extended losses on the news that one of the amendments put down by Conservative MP Dominic Grieve aimed at stopping Parliament from being suspended -- prorogued, in official language -- has been blocked. But that one isn’t the only amendment put down with that aim.

Grieve himself said he was relaxed. “Although one of them hasn’t been selected, the others do prevent prorogation during this period, and will be pursued.”

The bit of Grieve’s plan that has been lost is the amendment that specified what would happen if the next prime minister tried to suspend Parliament anyway. If the rest of Grieve’s amendments pass, the likeliest outcome of an attempted suspension is that the government would be taken to court for failing to comply with the law.

In that situation, you’d also be likely to have Parliament defying the executive and meeting anyway -- perhaps in a nearby building -- and a full-blown constitutional crisis.

It’s also worth noting that this bill has to pass the House of Lords as well, so if Grieve’s amendments go through today, there may well be an attempt to reinsert the missing one, or something similar, when the bill gets to the Lords.

Parliament to Vote on Move to Stop No-Deal (12:45 p.m.)

MPs in the House of Commons will debate an amendment to the Northern Ireland Bill to require Parliament to sit between October and December in a move intended to stop the new prime minister from suspending the House of Commons to force through a no-deal Brexit.

The amendment, being proposed by pro-EU Tory lawmaker Dominic Grieve, was selected for debate and will be voted on by MPs on Tuesday evening.

An additional clause from Grieve which would have required the Queen to recall Parliament if it had been suspended hasn’t been selected for debate.

Does Labour Move Make Referendum More Likely? (12:30 p.m.)

Both contenders to succeed Theresa May as prime minister have said they oppose a second Brexit referendum, so it is unlikely they would whip their MPs to support one. And, even if enough Tories rebelled and supported an opposition motion, the continuing division in the Labour Party would mean it wouldn’t necessarily go through.

When the House of Commons voted on April 1 in a series of “indicative votes” to establish which Brexit proposals had the most support, a referendum on any deal agreed with the bloc was defeated by 292 votes to 280, with no vote recorded for 77 MPs.

While Jeremy Corbyn has now publicly shifted his position, there are a significant number of Labour MPs who would rebel rather than back another referendum. And, significantly, Labour doesn’t commit to holding such a vote if it wins a snap general election – in fact, Corbyn says he still believes in Labour’s “compromise” plan and seems to suggest he would try to renegotiate on their terms.

If the SNP or the Liberal Democrats held the balance of power in a coalition with Labour after any election, they might put a referendum on the top of their list of demands for supporting the government.

Labour to Back Remain vs. No-Deal, Tory Deal (11:25 a.m.)

Jeremy Corbyn challenged the next prime minister to put their Brexit deal to a second referendum, and said Labour will campaign to remain in the EU in a vote on a no-deal exit or Conservative Brexit that doesn’t protect jobs or the economy.

Johnson Faces Showdown with Parliament on No Deal: Brexit Update

The announcement follows a meeting of the shadow cabinet to agree on a settled Brexit position. Pressure has been building on the party leadership to shift its position, with the majority of grassroots members in favor of staying in the EU. The major trade unions that fund Labour and help set its policy agreed to back a second referendum on Tuesday.

In a letter to Labour Party members, Corbyn repeated his preference for a general election “to end austerity and rebuild our country for the many not the few.”

There is no explicit mention in Corbyn’s letter about Labour’s plan for dealing with Brexit if it wins a snap election before the U.K. leaves the bloc, but he offered a hint when he referred to the party’s attempt to reach a deal with Prime Minister Theresa May.

“Labour set out a compromise plan to try to bring the country together based around a customs union, a strong single-market relationship and protection of environmental regulations and rights at work,” he wrote. “We continue to believe this is a sensible alternative that could bring the country together.”

EU Moves to Make No-Deal More Palatable (11:15 a.m.)

The European Union has taken a further step to make a potential no-deal Brexit more palatable by rubber stamping a plan to continue funding projects in Britain signed before the U.K. leaves the bloc. It would be contingent on the U.K. continuing to pay its contribution to the EU’s 2019 budget.

Finance ministers meeting in Brussels signed off on the plan to prevent a sudden break in EU-funded programs in areas such as agriculture and research.

Much uncertainty surrounds what would happen if the U.K. leaves without a deal, and Tuesday’s decision is “without prejudice to an agreement to be negotiated in a no-deal scenario on a financial settlement between the EU and the U.K., which would have to cover the entirety of mutual obligations resulting from the U.K.’s EU membership,” the EU said.

Johnson Faces Showdown with Parliament on No Deal: Brexit Update

Ireland Accepts Need for Border Checks in No-Deal (Correct)

Ireland has accepted the need to set up checks with Northern Ireland in a no-deal Brexit scenario, people familiar with the matter said.

The government accept that checks, especially on livestock, will be required if the U.K. crashes out of the European Union, the people said, asking not to be identified because the plans haven’t yet been discussed with cabinet. The location of any checks is still to be determined, one of the people said.

Bloomberg earlier reported that the government would accept that checks would have to be at or close to the border. A spokesman for Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney said that was “incorrect.” Updated contingency plans will be published in full later Tuesday, after the cabinet has had its discussion, the spokesman said.

Tory Rivals ‘Underestimate’ Chances of No-Deal (8:50 a.m.)

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt risk underestimating the chances of a no-deal Brexit, while the European Union shouldn’t rely on Parliament stopping it, according to former Conservative Party leader William Hague.

“It’s going to be a very close run thing whether it can do so,’’ Hague said on BBC radio on Tuesday.

Hague, who is backing Hunt to be prime minister, also said Britain shouldn’t tie itself to the specific Brexit date of Oct. 31, as it may need more time for negotiations with the bloc.

Earlier:

--With assistance from Dara Doyle, Kitty Donaldson, Alex Morales, Ian Wishart and Joe Mayes.

To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net;Jessica Shankleman in London at jshankleman@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Emma Ross-Thomas at erossthomas@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs

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