That Night Matteo Salvini Nearly Forced An Election Over Stuffed Pasta Dinner

(Bloomberg) -- On the night Matteo Salvini edged closest to forcing the collapse of Italy’s ruling coalition, the deputy premier joined his League Party lieutenants for dinner in the small town of Barzago in his northern stronghold.

Over stuffed Casoncelli pasta and Bresaola salted beef, a tense-looking Salvini mulled the pros and cons of pulling out of the government. League ministers were doing a good job, but if he couldn’t push his key policies through there was no point pressing on, Salvini told them at the July 18 gathering. One adviser asked if he was due to meet President Sergio Mattarella in Rome, which would signal he was ready to quit. I’m here, Salvini replied tersely.

That account, from someone at the meal, speaks volumes about how the 46-year-old firebrand keeps everyone, even his own inner circle, guessing about his next move. After the high-charged evening, the most powerful political force in Italy kept a sweaty finger on the trigger over the next few days, still debating with himself on whether to force an early election.

He fumed against Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and coalition partner Luigi Di Maio of the Five Star Movement for supporting Ursula von der Leyen as new head of the EU Commission and for stalling on his demand for more power for northern regions. Then – less than a week later – in the cold light of day Salvini gave up on the snap vote scenario, at least for now.

Never before had chest-thumping Salvini come so close to abandoning the government sworn in 14 months ago, said senior League advisers. And every time he threatens to leave, he gets something in return. In this latest round, support for a high-speed Alpine rail link with France he’s long wanted.

The reason Salvini blinked was because he believes he can fulfill his campaign pledges, including greater regional autonomy and tax cuts, and propel the League beyond the 34% it won in May’s European parliamentary elections, according to advisers and lawmakers briefed on his strategy.

‘Italy First’

To understand that belief is to see how Salvini transformed the League from an initially-secessionist party into a national force in the space of just a few years. Since becoming its leader in 2013, he’s spent much of his time criss-crossing Italy to speak with voters beside themselves with anger at an economy stuck in the doldrums, winning over ever-more of them with a mastery of social media that channels their discomfort with immigrants and crime.

His talent was on display at a rally in Barzago’s sports center, just before the dinner. As Salvini walked onto the stage people chanted “Dump Them, Dump Them!” in reference to Five Star. It’s in the provincial backwaters, in hollowed-out places like Barzago – one-hour’s drive from Milan – where Salvini’s Trumpian ‘Italy First’ slogan resonates the strongest.

He reeled off the list of measures he wants to enact, before posing patiently for selfies with dozens of supporters who queued for the privilege. Those who didn’t attend, watched – the event was streamed live on Facebook to Salvini’s 3.7 million followers.

His ultimate goal is to secure the premiership without the need for allies, said the League officials. Not even a “Russiagate” scandal over reports that a close associate of Salvini allegedly solicited illegal party funding from three Russians has dented the party’s relentless rise in opinion polls – many voters believe him when he says he has “never taken a ruble, a euro, a dollar or a liter of vodka in financing from Russia.”

Beyond the belief in his ability to take the League even further, Salvini’s decision to stick with the coalition comes down to there being no guarantee the head of state would call early elections. The president must first seek an alternative majority, and Salvini is concerned other parties could offer support for a new premier. Five Star could, out of spite, team up with the center-left Democratic Party.

Salvini’s tone can switch from menacing to conciliatory, sometimes within hours. That can be hard for investors to read. With coalition tensions near-permanent, the next thing to look out for is whether the mercurial leader might seek to provoke early elections in the Spring, after the 2020 budget that will test his drive to spend versus pressure from the European Union to rein in debt.

For now, energized by the European vote which made the League Italy’s biggest party, Salvini will push his promise of a so-called “flat tax” with a 15% rate on personal incomes between 25,000 euros and 65,000 euros despite a sluggish economy. That won’t come cheap – between 10 and 15 billion euros – and a new confrontation in the fall with Brussels seems inevitable.

Though he loves a good fight, he doesn’t necessarily want to go into one alone. Salvini is a career politician, who dabbled in journalism at a younger age, and he’s more at ease banging on about migration and security than dealing with the vast array of issues a government leader faces, according to a former premier who declined to be named.

Strengthening his hand throughout all of this, apart from the League’s rank and file, is the devotion he inspires. On that balmy summer night on July 18, his entourage tried to lift Salvini’s spirits by relating the latest gossip on lawmakers’ extra-marital affairs. That made him smile.

Salvini didn’t ask any of his lieutenants whether he should ditch Five Star – nor did any of them offer an opinion. He is the one who decides, said League lawmakers who point to how he steered the party from single-digit election results to today’s high rankings. We stand by him, one said – like granite.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net, Raymond ColittCaroline Alexander

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