Tehran Dashes Hopes of Atomic Talks Resuming Soon: Iran Snapshot
(Bloomberg) -- Here is a snapshot of what’s happening with Iran, its nuclear talks and energy markets.
Iran’s new government suggested that formal nuclear talks may not restart until November, casting doubt on a deal with world powers happening before the end of 2021.
Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian told state television it will be a two- or three-month process for President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration to become “well-established” and plan for a potential revival of the 2015 accord.
New York-based political risk consultancy Eurasia Group on Monday lowered its probability for a nuclear deal before 2022 to 55% from 65%.
“By not rushing, Raisi may be seeking to signal that while the deal may be important, it is not a priority, and Tehran is not going to trip over itself to get it secured quickly,” Henry Rome, a senior analyst at the firm, wrote in a note.
Discussions have stalled since Raisi’s election in June, and it’s unclear when diplomats will reconvene in Vienna for a seventh round of talks. The U.S., European Union and Russia had hoped for a quick resumption following Raisi’s inauguration early last month.
The timeline given by Amirabdollahian would make it difficult for Iran to return to global oil markets this year -- something many traders were anticipating.
- Iran Hints Nuclear Talks May Not Resume Until November
- Iran President Names Mohammad Eslami as Nuclear Chief: Iran TV
- Israel, U.S. to Pursue Joint Strategy on Iran Program
- Iraq Eyes New Regional Role and Looks for Help to Rebuild
Oil climbed in early trading on Wednesday, with Brent crude up around 1% to roughly $72.20 a barrel, as traders counted down the hours until an OPEC+ meeting. The cartel is expected to push ahead with a plan to boost daily output next month by 400,000 barrels.
After rallying in the first half of 2021, crude’s surge has stalled over the past two months amid concern over the delta coronavirus variant and a rebound in the dollar. Analysts expect additional volatility in the weeks ahead as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico threaten to interrupt supply and refining.
In the event that there is a nuclear deal, many oil investors expect Tehran to be able increase production by around 1 million barrels per day within months.
- Sept. 1: OPEC+ meets to discuss whether to push ahead with a planned oil-production increase in October
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