Syrian Crisis Leaves Erdogan in a Jam

(Bloomberg) --

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in a bind.

The biggest single-day loss of Turkish troops in decades — in an attack over the border in Syria’s northwest — has dramatically escalated tensions not just with President Bashar al-Assad, whose troops are fighting Turkish-backed rebels in the area, but with Russia. Assad is supported by Vladimir Putin, including militarily.

Moscow denied direct involvement in the clash, and Russia seems to be taking a conciliatory tone, but it’s getting harder for Erdogan and Putin to remain above the fray. The two have an uneasy understanding to try and stay out of each other’s way in the Middle East and North Africa.

The killing of so many of his soldiers means Erdogan can’t sit back and do nothing. Already Turkey has stepped up attacks on Syrian positions near the border areas. But equally, he has limited options. He can’t afford a direct fight with Russia. NATO and European nations aren’t keen to be drawn in. And President Donald Trump has signaled other priorities for the U.S. than Syria.

That leaves Erdogan with one card to play — refugees. Already there are hints he may allow more refugees from Syria across Turkey’s borders towards Europe. That prospect will be spurring alarm today in the halls of power in Berlin and Paris. It’s the only way Erdogan can expect to get Europe to sit up and listen.

Syrian Crisis Leaves Erdogan in a Jam

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Syrian Crisis Leaves Erdogan in a Jam

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What to Watch

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  • Thailand’s parliament rejected motions of no-confidence in Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha and five other ministers in the ruling coalition after a week-long censure debate over the performance of the government.

Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). What was the first Group of Seven nation to sign up to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative? Send us your answers and tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally … Vladimir Putin says he is the genuine article and always has been, after he disclosed he’d rejected a proposal by officials to allow body doubles to stand in for him. Putin said the idea, which has long been a subject of speculation in Russia, came up in the early years of his presidency, when he visited troops during a bitter war against Islamist separatists that killed thousands in Russia’s Chechnya region.

Syrian Crisis Leaves Erdogan in a Jam

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