Six Reasons Why Wounded Boris Johnson Can Still Hang On to Power

(Bloomberg) -- Boris Johnson’s leadership is under the microscope after a humiliating defeat for his Conservative Party in a special parliamentary election.

The U.K. prime minister was already on the ropes as he battled a surging coronavirus wave, allegations of illegal parties in 10 Downing Street last year and plummeting personal poll ratings.

Thursday’s seismic loss to the Liberal Democrats -- who overturned a huge Conservative majority in a seat they held for almost two centuries -- has Tory MPs asking publicly how long he can last.

Even so, it may be too early to call the end on Johnson. Here are some compelling reasons why:

There’s No Obvious Successor

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s star rose rapidly during the pandemic as he created his own brand and steered the British economy through the pandemic. 

But he lacks Johnson’s cut-through with the public. Campaigning for a by-election earlier this month, Johnson stopped traffic, according to Tory Party Chairman Oliver Dowden, who accompanied him, whereas Sunak didn’t get the same response. 

Moreover, Sunak is a relative political novice who may want to bide his time. Tory MPs say the center of gravity in the party is still around Johnson, not his chancellor.

The other big candidate is Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who consistently polls as the most popular cabinet minister among party members and has made no secret of her ambitions. She’s used photo opportunities including riding a tank in eastern Europe to boost her profile and invite comparisons with Conservative icon Margaret Thatcher. But for many, she’s “too ideologically libertarian and Thatcherite,” according to Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University.

“There’s not a natural successor,” former Scottish Conservatives Leader Ruth Davidson told BBC Radio on Friday. However, recent events mean the question of succession is “openly talked about at all levels with in the party.” 

New Year, New Start

The House of Commons is in recess until Jan. 5. That gives the Tories a cooling-off period when MPs can’t plot in the corridors of Westminster or sound off in the chamber. 

Johnson will hope the sting of the by-election defeat and the furore over Downing Street parties dies down over Christmas, with his backbenchers returning in a better mood in the new year.

The Tories are also planning a team-bonding stay in an as-yet-undisclosed Midlands location in early January, another chance for Johnson to rally his troops.

A National Crisis Is Not the Time

Britain is in the throes of a record coronavirus wave as the omicron variant spreads rapidly. The backdrop of a public health emergency gives Tory MPs reduced appetite for the drama of a palace coup. A leadership challenge now would be “completely self-indulgent,” said Tory backbencher Charles Walker.

Moreover, with the pandemic raging, inflation rising and the economy faltering, there’s less incentive for would-be challengers to want to take the reins, said Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at Kent University.

“There’s a lot of things Johnson’s critics will be happy for him to soak up,” Goodwin said. “The initial temptation among his critics may be to allow Johnson to hoover up the negative political costs of all of that before making a move.”

By-Elections Are Often a Protest Vote

The resounding nature of the North Shropshire loss will certainly make Conservative MPs nervous, because it was the seventh-largest ever swing against a party in a British special election.

But ruling parties often do badly in U.K. by-elections, with voters able to punish the government without kicking it out of power. Former Conservative Prime Minister John Major lost a series of by-elections during his tenure, but survived to fight -- and lose -- the 1997 general election to Tony Blair.

Labour Isn’t Miles Ahead

For all the negative headlines about Johnson’s leadership, the main opposition Labour Party only recently moved ahead in the polls, at a mid-term moment when governments are typically further behind. 

The poor Labour performance in North Shropshire might offer reassurance to anxious Tory MPs, after the main opposition party finished a distant third. But with tactical voting playing a part as Labour voters switched to the Lib Dems to oust the Tories, it could also serve as a warning. If that were replicated in a general election, it could spell trouble for the Conservatives.

Johnson Cheers Up the Party Faithful

When on form, no one is better at making the Tories feel good about being Tories than the prime minister, with his boosterish nature and penchant for word-play. 

For all his missteps, Johnson has a certain star quality that energizes voters in a way other Tories can’t. That means his MPs may not be ready to ditch a proved winner whose successes include twice winning the mayorship of normally left-leaning London, spearheading the successful Brexit campaign in the 2016 referendum, and delivering the biggest Tory majority since 1987 in the 2019 general election.  

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