Sinn Fein to Be Edged Out of Power By Grand Coalition, Odds Say

(Bloomberg) -- The next Irish government is now most likely to be a grand coalition of traditional rivals Fianna Fail and Fine Gael along with the Green Party, betting odds show.

There is a 38% chance of a those three parties coming together, according to bookmaker Paddy Power. Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin has a 75% chance of being prime minister, the odds show.

The chances of that combination of parties running the next administration has overtaken a possible government involving Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein as most likely. That had been the favorite coalition government among gamblers in the run up to and immediate aftermath of the vote.

Sinn Fein lawmaker Eoin O’Broin warned on Friday it would be impossible for his party to form a government without Fianna Fail or Fine Gael. Both of those parties have pledged not to work with Sinn Fein. There is now a 12.5% chance of Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein ending up in coalition alongside the Green Party, and a 29% chance party leader Mary Lou McDonald will be prime minister, odds show.

Still, there is no certainty Fianna Fail and Fine Gael could work together as coalition partners either. The two parties trace their roots back to the opposing sides in the Irish civil war in the early 1920s. While both follow broadly similar policies, some party members would be deeply opposed to working with each other.

Story Link: Sinn Fein Unlikely to Have Role in Irish Government, Odds Show

To contact the reporter on this story: Peter Flanagan in Dublin at pflanagan23@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at cthomas16@bloomberg.net, Dara Doyle

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