Sikkim Standoff: Is China’s Tough Talk A Pressure Tactic Or Real Threat?

China’s refusal to budge on the military standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in the Dokalam area of Sikkim is a pressure tactic and India needs to stand firm, former diplomats and defense analysts told BloombergQuint as the standoff entered its 20th day.

The origin of the dispute is China’s attempt to build a road in what Bhutan claims is its territory. India, which provides military support to Bhutan, sees this as a ‘significant change in status quo’ with security implications for India.

India needs to be firm and patient, and avoid being strident, said former Indian Ambassador and career diplomat Vivek Katju. Abandoning Bhutan is not an option, he added.

Former Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai agrees that China is resorting to ‘pressure tactics’. On whether this amounts to a real threat, Mathai said, “The possibility of a threat is always part of the pressure tactics.”

Also Read: India ‘Misleading The Public’ On Sikkim Standoff, China Says

China, meanwhile, has ruled out any dialogue on the matter unless India withdraws troops unilaterally. “The ball is in India’s court,” Chinese Ambassador to India Luo Zhaohui said on Tuesday, ruling out any compromise in the dispute. This was followed by more tough talk from the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Gen Shuang in Beijing who told reporters at a press briefing that “India is misleading the public”.

“The Sikkim section of the boundary commences from East mountain and the incident (of road building) took place about 2,000 meters away from Mount Gipmochi," Geng asserted.

China’s aggressive stance is mirrored in the state-controlled Chinese media. According to an article in The Global Times, “If New Delhi believes that its military might can be used as leverage in the Donglang area, and it's ready for a two-and-a-half front war, we have to tell India that the Chinese look down on their military power. Jaitley is right that the India of 2017 is different from that of 1962 - India will suffer greater losses than in 1962 if it incites military conflicts’

Also Read: China Says Doklam Situation ‘Grave’, Rules Out Compromise

The rhetoric from the state media has prompted Sushant Sareen, senior fellow at think-tank Vivekananda International Foundation to read the situation as a ‘pretty real threat’.

“For anybody to think this is just role play would be a mistake,” Sareen argued but added that unilaterally backing down, as the Chinese demand is not an option.

While India has been careful so far in wording its response to Chinese aggression so far, all eyes will be on the G-20 Summit in Hamburg starting Friday where Prime Minister Modi is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping.