Scottish Independence Support Rises to Record in Divided U.K
Scottish Independence Support Rises to a Record in Divided U.K.
(Bloomberg) -- Support in Scotland for breaking away from the rest of the U.K. climbed to a record as the coronavirus pandemic and economic fallout harden political divisions in the country.
Some 58% of respondents who expressed their voting intention said they would back Scotland becoming an independent country, according to an Ipsos MORI poll of 1,045 people carried out on Oct. 2-9. That topped previous surveys this year showing support at about 55%.
The prospect of a renewed battle over the future of the U.K. is becoming increasingly likely for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is already juggling the need for tighter restrictions to curb Covid-19 and tense negotiations with the European Union on a trade deal.
The pro-independence Scottish National Party is way ahead in the polls ahead of elections to the Scottish parliament in May.
Leader Nicola Sturgeon, who also heads the semi-autonomous government in Edinburgh, has said victory will reinforce her mandate to push for another independence referendum and is preparing legislation. Johnson has so far refused to allow Scotland to hold a vote.
“Our poll suggests that there will be significant public pressure for the U.K. government to transfer powers to the Scottish Parliament to hold a second independence referendum if the SNP win a majority at next year’s Holyrood elections,” said Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland.
Scots voted against independence in 2014, with 55% choosing to stay a part of the three-centuries-old union. When it comes to having another say, the Ipsos MORI poll found that 64% of people thought the U.K. should allow another vote within the next five years should the SNP win a majority of seats, something it last did in the 2011 Scottish election.
The Ipsos MORI survey is the ninth consecutive poll to show majority support for Scottish independence, according to John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow. Notably, the poll showed the strongest support among the younger generations, he said.
“No less than 79% of those aged 16-24 -- most of whom were too young to vote in 2014 -- say that they would vote yes” to independence, Curtice said. “The foundations of support for the Union are seemingly gradually being eroded by demographic turnover.”
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