Trump’s Coattails Tested in North Carolina: Campaign Update

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump’s coattails could be getting a real stress test in North Carolina.

An independent poll shows Democrat Dan McCready has a narrow edge over Republican Dan Bishop in a rare redo election for a vacant U.S. House seat in the south-central part of the state.

McCready, an energy entrepreneur, has a 46%-42% advantage over Bishop, and two third-party candidates each have a combined 3%, according to a poll conducted for Inside Elections in advance the Sept. 10 vote. The August 26-28 survey conducted jointly by a GOP firm, Harper Polling, and Democrat-aligned Clarity Campaign Labs, also found that when voters who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate were included, McCready’s lead extended to 49%-44%.

The poll of 551 likely special election voters in North Carolina’s 9th District had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.19 percentage points.

Trump, who won the district in 2016 with 54% of the vote, is scheduled to hold a rally in Fayetteville the day before the election to bolster Bishop. A loss for the Republican would be a harbinger for GOP efforts to retake the House and a warning sign for Trump’s own re-election campaign.

Popular-Vote Plan Hits Roadblock in Colorado (5:14 p.m.)

Perhaps it’s only fitting that a plan to elect the president by popular vote should itself be put up to a popular vote.

Colorado voters will vote on the fate of a multi-state agreement to give their state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins most of the popular votes nationwide, not to the candidate who wins the state.

The Democratic-led state Legislature voted earlier this year to join the compact, frustrated by the Electoral College system that put Donald Trump in the White House despite losing to Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. In March, Governor Jared Polis signed the measure adding Colorado to 15 other states and the District of Columbia supporting the National Popular Vote plan.

But Colorado’s participation is now in jeopardy after opponents gathered enough petitions to put the plan up for a statewide vote. The Colorado secretary of state certified the question for the 2020 ballot on Thursday. It’s the first attempt to undo an act of the Legislature since 1932.

Either way, the plan is unlikely to go into effect for the 2020 presidential election. By agreement, the new system wouldn’t be triggered until states representing a majority of electoral votes -- 270 -- sign off. With Colorado, it would be 193. -- Gregory Korte

Economic Pessimism Grows Among Democrats, GOP (2:51 PM)

Democrats’ and Republicans’ pessimism about the economy continued to grow in August, driven by President Donald Trump’s trade war with China.

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Expectations dropped 10.6 points to 79.9 in August, its steepest drop since Trump took office. Republicans and independents led the way, with their lowest levels of the Trump presidency.

Trump’s trade war with China seems to be driving the lowered expectations. Among those concerned about tariffs in the survey, the index was 56.2 -- compared to 89.8 for those who didn’t mention tariffs.

“While the overall level of sentiment is still consistent with modest gains in consumption, it is nonetheless likely that consumers could be pushed off the ‘tariff cliff’ in the months ahead,” said the University of Michigan’s Richard Curtin. -- Gregory Korte

Sanders Gathers Workers to Jump-Start 2020 Bid (11:17 A.M.)

The Bernie Sanders campaign says it used one conference call to set up 1,600 house parties, expanding his effort to bring in new voters for a candidacy that’s been stuck in second place in all national polls.

The “Plan to Win” house party push was the largest the campaign has done. The rallies will be held Sept. 18-24 in the key early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and California. Sanders is currently polling at 17.1% nationally, according to the Real Clear Politics average.

“We are the strongest campaign to defeat Donald Trump,” Sanders said in a phone call with volunteers, according to the campaign. “We have over a million people at the grassroots level who are prepared to volunteer for this campaign because they know the stakes, they know the moral imperative of defeating Trump and the equally important imperative of transforming our country.”

The events will be used to organize volunteers and phone banks.

Sanders, 77, who was defeated by 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, comes in No. 2 in nearly every poll behind Joe Biden, and is in a statistical tie with Elizabeth Warren. He’s been looking for ways to move his campaign forward. -- Emma Kinery

COMING UP

Climate change takes center stage at a CNN town hall on Sept. 4. The Democratic National Committee has rejected demands from climate activists and several candidates for a party-sponsored debate solely on that issue.

--With assistance from Emma Kinery and Gregory Korte.

To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Litvan in Washington at llitvan@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, Laurie Asséo, John Harney

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