Russia Worries If Awkward Ally’s Time Is Up as Protests Grow
Russia Worries If Awkward Ally’s Time Is Up as Protests Swell
(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s options to preserve influence in its closest ally are narrowing as Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s grip on power slips amid swelling popular protests against his 26-year rule.
Some in the Kremlin fear Lukashenko could be forced from office, according to three people familiar with the situation, leaving Russia scrambling to maintain its special relationship with a vital buffer against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Others see his brutal crackdown on opponents as counterproductive but ultimately likely to keep him in power at least for a while, said another person close to the Kremlin.
“No one is sure anymore about Lukashenko’s future,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a research group that advises the Kremlin. “He may succeed in the short term in suppressing the protests but there’s a big problem here.”
Until this week’s protests following his claim of a landslide victory in the Aug. 9 election spiraled into the largest ever seen in Belarus -- despite a police crackdown unprecedented in its brutality -- the Kremlin was betting that Lukashenko would again manage to extend his rule, with his harsh tactics leaving him isolated in the West and thus more dependent on Russia.
Hedging Bets
But as the demonstrations have spread across the country and metastasized into work stoppages at major state enterprises, the Kremlin has at least publicly been trying to hedge its bets.
While Lukashenko said Friday he has no plans to leave, some people around him have sounded out Kremlin contacts on the possibility of fleeing to Russia if they were deposed, according to two people in Moscow familiar with the conversations. In a concession to Moscow, Lukashenko’s government Friday released 32 Russians it had detained before the vote on charges they were planning to foment unrest, Tass reported.
Lukashenko called Russian President Vladimir Putin Saturday and the two expressed confidence the problems in Belarus would soon be resolved. “The main thing is that destructive forces seeking to do harm to the mutually beneficial cooperation of our two countries not take advantage of these problems,” the Kremlin said in a statement.
In televised remarks before the call, Lukashenko said the protests are “a threat not just to Belarus” but also to Russia. Later in the day, he told military commanders, “we won’t give up the country to anyone,” saying his government doesn’t need foreign intermediaries to resolve the crisis, state-run Belta reported.
In Warsaw, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who met Lukashenko in February, said the vote was neither free nor fair but didn’t answer questions about a new election or possible addition sanctions. On Friday, the European Union rejected the vote result and signaled it’s ready to impose sanctions on Belarus.
Starting Friday, security forces largely stood aside as protests swelled. Authorities released detainees in an apparent effort to ease tensions. But in televised comments, Lukashenko reiterated claims the protests were instigated by foreigners “with criminal backgrounds” and told citizens to stay off the streets “while we restore order.”
Lukashenko’s long been a troublesome ally, resisting Moscow’s push for closer economic and political union and building ties with the U.S., Europe and China. But he’s ultimately been a reliable bulwark for Russia against the steady encroachment of Western interests along its European border. Moscow has in the past tolerated his crackdowns on opponents, but the scale of the opposition and the violence this time has led some Russian officials to speak out.
“There’s a cold war between Lukashenko and the majority of the population, who even if they aren’t on the streets, aren’t happy about the no-holds-barred tactics against protesters or the president’s sixth term,” said Konstantin Zatulin, a senior lawmaker from the ruling United Russia party, denouncing the vote results as fraudulent.
Sandwiched between Russia and three NATO members, Belarus remains a key ally but “there’s virtually no trust between Minsk and Moscow,” he said.
Russia showed it can take a more tolerant approach to revolutions among its allies when protests in Armenia in 2018 led to the overthrown of a Moscow-friendly leader. The Kremlin moved quickly to build ties with the new government.
‘Fed Up’
But the stakes in Belarus are much higher. Moscow “is fed up” with Lukashenko but would prefer to keep him in place because any alternative leader is likely to seek closer ties with the West, said Lukyanov from the research group advising the Kremlin.
The opposition in Belarus, which is calling for Lukashenko to step down, has called for close ties with Russia but also embraces links to the West. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the opposition candidate who claimed victory in the elections, fled this week to Lithuania -- known for its anti-Russian stance -- after being detained for several hours in Minsk.
Still, some in Russia are reaching out. A Minsk-born Russian fertilizer tycoon, Dmitry Mazepin, on Friday called for the formation of a committee of national salvation in Belarus and urged Lukashenko to enter into negotiations with the opposition.
“Russia has wound up in a horrible situation,” Sergei Markov, a political consultant to the Kremlin, wrote in Facebook Friday. “In the country closest to Russia, a Russophobic coup is being conducted by hostile forces.”
Some in the Russian elite have called for military intervention along the lines of the 2014 move into Ukraine, but Zatulin said that would be a “monumental stupidity.”
Putin doesn’t want to provide military help for Lukashenko because it would fuel anti-Russian sentiment in Belarus and would be too risky, but if the elite splits Russia could give the green light to his ouster by elements in the security establishment, said Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin adviser.
“Lukashenko no longer controls Belarus, he controls only the security forces, but will they remain loyal? It’s not clear,” he said. “All this is a headache for Putin.”
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