Putin Sets Path to Stay On as Russia’s President to 2036
Vladimir Putin has reversed his past opposition to scrapping term limits so that he—and only he—can continue to rule the country.
(Bloomberg) -- Vladimir Putin set the stage to stay on as Russia’s president for potentially another 16 years, reversing his past opposition to scrapping term limits so that he -- and only he -- can continue to rule the country.
“I fully recognize my own personal responsibility toward the citizens of this country,” Putin said Tuesday in an unscheduled speech before the lower house of parliament. “I see that people, certainly most of society, await my own views and decisions on the key question of governing the state, both today and after 2024” for a fifth and possibly sixth presidential term.
He spoke after a surprise appeal by ruling United Russia lawmakers for him to stay on as president once his current term ends in 2024. Their proposal to reset the term limit under a revised constitution, allowing Putin two more six-year terms, “may be possible but on one condition -- that Russia’s Constitutional Court give an official ruling” that it wouldn’t contradict the country’s basic law, Putin said.
Putin, who’s been in power since 2000, is already the longest-serving Kremlin leader since Soviet dictator Josef Stalin. For years, he rejected the notion of joining a long line of strongmen in amending the constitution to keep power, ranging from China’s Xi Jinping to central Asian leaders in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
His position appears to have shifted as alternative Kremlin proposals for keeping power that included a takeover of neighboring Belarus and ruling through parliament or via Russia’s State Council -- foundered. Advocates argue that constitutional changes announced by Putin in January and now passing through parliament mean he can simply disregard his current presidential terms under the new rules.
The Constitutional Court ruling -- along with a national vote scheduled for April 22 in support of the plan that Putin also set as a condition -- is all but certain to go the Kremlin’s way in Russia’s tightly-controlled political system. It opens the way for Putin, 67, to rule potentially to 2036, when he would be nearly 84.
Noting that the U.S. imposed presidential term limits only in 1951 -- “that’s practically yesterday in historical terms” -- Putin said Russia was still strengthening its political system after the turmoil that followed the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.
In such times, “stability is probably more important and should be the priority,” he said. Once the country has become stronger, rotation of leaders “takes priority,” he added, without specifying when that would be.
“Putin is achieving his main goal of staving off the day when he will have to give up power,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, head of R.Politik, a political consultancy. “He wants to get the elites and society used to the idea that he may stay on.”
The president addressed the State Duma after Valentina Tereshkova, a respected United Russia lawmaker who was also the first woman in space, made the proposal to reset the term limit under the revised constitution, saying “Putin needs to be there -- in case something goes wrong.” Shortly after Putin spoke, the Duma passed her proposal by 380 votes to 43.
“This proposal will calm everyone down,” Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of the upper house of parliament, told state television. “All this discussion of who would be the successor, what would happen to national security, these are all alarming processes.”
The president’s reversal of his opposition to changing term limits came as markets have been roiled by the coronavirus outbreak and the oil-price war that followed last week’s collapse of the accord on output cuts between Russia and OPEC states led by Saudi Arabia. Putin spoke days after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman consolidated his grip on power with an unprecedented crackdown by security forces who arrested senior princes and military officials.
The overhaul to Russia’s 1993 constitution was widely seen as an effort to create options for Putin to retain control even after he steps down as president. But until Tuesday’s announcement, confusion surrounded his plans as initial expectations faded that the presidency would be weakened by moves to bolster parliament and the State Council, an advisory body that Putin heads.
The shift in approach also followed unsuccessful Kremlin efforts to pressure neighboring Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to agree to merge his country with Russia, allowing Putin to sidestep term limits as head of the new unified state.
“He doesn’t want to become a lame duck,” said Evgeny Minchenko, a Moscow political consultant. While Putin’s likely to remain in office, the constitutional changes still “leave a lot of room for maneuver and there could be other moves.”
Putin appears to have “finally decided in favor of running again in 2024,” Dmitri Trenin, director of the Moscow Carnegie Center, said in a tweet. That may make the “eventual transition, whenever it happens, less smooth.”
--With assistance from Ilya Arkhipov, Stepan Kravchenko and Evgenia Pismennaya.
To contact the reporters on this story: Henry Meyer in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net;Andrey Biryukov in Moscow at abiryukov5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Gregory L. White at gwhite64@bloomberg.net, Tony Halpin
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