Putin Resolves to Back Belarus Ally, Wary of Protest Spread
Putin Doubles Down on Belarus Ally, Wary of Protest Contagion
(Bloomberg) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin is tightening his embrace of beleaguered ally Alexander Lukashenko as the Belarusian ruler ramps up violence against mass protests that show no sign of fading, with nearly 800 people detained on Sunday.
Putin, who hosts Lukashenko for talks in Sochi on Monday, is determined the Belarusian president won’t be toppled, after the Russian leadership was taken aback by the scale of the protests, said five people close to the Kremlin. While Moscow doesn’t trust Lukashenko, it can’t accept the opposition coming to power via street demonstrations and will back him while encouraging steps toward an eventual succession, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing internal policy.
Tens of thousands rallied in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, again on Sunday, defying riot police and masked men without insignia who tried violently to break up the protests at times in an apparent return to some of the aggressive tactics deployed earlier in the crisis. There were protests, too, in other cities. Police detained 774 people, the Interior Ministry said Monday.
It’s the first face-to-face meeting between the two presidents since the daily protests erupted in Belarus after Lukashenko claimed to have won 80% in the Aug. 9 election to extend his 26-year rule. He has refused to offer any concessions to the opposition.
“Belarus is of huge importance,” said Mikhail Vinogradov, who heads the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation. “Putin doesn’t want to end up on the losing side.”
The crisis engulfing Moscow’s closest partner echoes revolts that swept away pro-Kremlin leaders in Ukraine and Armenia since 2014, and comes weeks after Putin changed Russia’s constitution to allow him to extend his two-decade rule, potentially to 2036.
The European Union and the U.S. condemned the repression and rejected the election result, but have only threatened sanctions so far.
The opposition that united behind Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who’s now in exile in Lithuania, says she won the election and wants Lukashenko to begin talks on handing over power.
Putin said last month he’d agreed with Lukashenko to send Russian police to help quell the unrest if necessary, while adding he saw no need yet. Russia has dispatched media workers to Belarus to replace striking staff at the state broadcaster.
Belarus has asked Russia to reschedule $1 billion in debt. Discussions on Russian gas supplies took place Friday.
Lukashenko’s ties with Putin became strained after he resisted Russian pressure last year for deeper integration and instead sought a rapprochement with the West.
After attacking Russia during the election, his tilt back toward Moscow has come as Belarusian security forces have pushed out of the country or jailed almost all senior opposition figures while using brutal tactics against protesters.
Russian support for Lukashenko “is a tactical decision that won’t work in the medium term,” Pavel Latushko, a member of the Belarus opposition’s coordinating council, said in a Sept. 8 interview. “Any agreements signed now between Russia and Belarus will be considered null and void from a legal viewpoint.”
There’s a risk “Russia will turn the most friendly neighbor they have into a population that sees them as an accessory to Lukashenko and his authoritarianism,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a former U.K. ambassador to Belarus who’s now senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
Lukashenko, 66, called Putin his “older brother” and suggested their fates were intertwined in an interview with Russian media broadcast Sept. 9.
“You know what we agreed with the Russian establishment and leadership?” he said. “That if Belarus breaks, Russia will be next.”
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.