Cause of Navalny Illness May Be Unknown for Days, Aide Says

(Bloomberg) -- Alexei Navalny, the Russian anti-corruption campaigner who has been in a coma since Thursday, is being examined at a German hospital and it may be days before officials can confirm or reject accusations that he was poisoned.

Navalny was in “very critical” but stable condition according to an ally who helped organize his evacuation from Russia to Berlin’s Charite hospital on Saturday. The results of the tests and a prognosis may not be available for several days, Leonid Volkov, his chief of staff, said in a Facebook post.

His sudden and severe illness has raised suspicions after a string of Kremlin critics have become victims of poisoning. Dissident security service officer Alexander Litvinenko died in London after consuming tea laced with polonium in 2006 and ex-spy Sergei Skripal survived an assassination attempt with a weapons-grade nerve agent, Novichok, in England’s Salisbury in 2018. U.K. officials linked both attacks to the Russian state.

“Much speaks for poisoning frankly,” Thomas Daldrup, a forensic toxicologist from the University of Duesseldorf, said in an interview. “If the substance was intended to do its damage and then decay quickly in the body, then it may be difficult to establish a forensic picture of the attack. A strong initial hunch would be insulin toxication, an attack by a substance that altered the insulin blood level, made it go haywire.”

Members of Navalny’s team postponed a briefing planned for Sunday, Volkov said on Facebook, without giving a reason or setting a new date.

Navalny was under close surveillance by Russian security services during his visit to the Siberian city of Tomsk just before he fell ill, Russia’s Moskovsky Komsomolets reported, citing security sources. The newspaper published a detailed record of Navalny’s movements and meetings in the city, including a visit to a “secret” flat, rented by one of his supporters, to edit opposition videos. Investigators haven’t identified any contacts that could have led to a poisoning, MK said.

“Only time will tell what the outcome is,” Jaka Bizilj, co-founder of the Cinema for Peace group that facilitated Navalny’s move, said in a phone interview Saturday. “If he survives, will he be the old Navalny? We’re completely in the dark right now.”

Russian authorities allowed Navalny to be transported from the hospital in Omsk, Siberia, after his family, activists and international leaders appealed directly to President Vladimir Putin. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government said it hopes Navalny’s treatment in Berlin will lead to a complete recovery, according to the press office. The hospital didn’t give an update on his condition on Sunday.

Navalny, 44, fell ill on a plane returning to Moscow from Tomsk on Thursday. He was in the city meeting local activists and opposition candidates ahead of regional elections set for September. His spokeswoman, Kira Yarmysh, said he’d only had a cup of tea that day before the flight. The aircraft made an emergency landing in Omsk, where he was put on a ventilator.

The case has been marked by conflicting reports about the cause of his illness. Doctors in Omsk initially said they were investigating a possible poisoning but later said they found no evidence. Navalny’s team said a toxin was found, citing an unidentified police officer. There has been no official confirmation of a possible poisoning.

Omsk’s hospital’s chief medic, Alexander Murakhovsky, said that Navalny is suffering from a metabolic disorder. On Friday, another doctor said tests showed no traces of toxins, according to a video posted by Yarmysh.

The case has drawn international attention. U.S. President Donald Trump said he’s looking into the situation, while Merkel called for a probe of the incident and French President Emmanuel Macron said he’s extremely concerned.

The ruble was among the weakest performers in emerging markets for a second day on Friday, breaching 75 versus the dollar for the first time in four months. While oil has weakened, domestic politics were also a factor in the move, Rosbank analyst Yury Tulinov said.

Navalny’s widely-viewed reports about corruption in Putin’s inner circle have made him countless enemies over the years. He has a huge following on social media, with 2.2 million subscribers on Twitter alone, and his YouTube channel regularly posts investigations that have embarrassed top allies of Putin, such as former Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, for their lavish lifestyles.

Merkel, who discussed the situation with Macron on Thursday, said Germany will insist on finding out why the Kremlin critic collapsed into a coma. “We were shocked about the news of Navalny’s condition,” she said.

Sudden Illness

Navalny became Russia’s most prominent opposition figure during massive 2011-2012 protests against Putin’s return to the Kremlin for a third term following four years as prime minister.

Activist Pyotr Verzilov, who led a pitch invasion during the 2018 soccer World Cup final game to protest Putin’s rule, was treated for what doctors said were symptoms of poisoning later that year. The chief coordinator for Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s Open Russia organization, Vladimir Kara-Murza, suffered acute kidney failure after being poisoned in 2015, later making a recovery after being flown to the U.S.

“No matter whether it’s an attempted murder or just scare tactics, poisonings are pretty much always somehow connected to the security services,” Tatiana Stanovaya, head of R. Politik, a political consultancy, said in a social media post.

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