Polls Say Ruling LDP May Lose Outright Majority: Japan Election

(Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will struggle to maintain its single-handed majority in parliament in Sunday’s election, according to two polls from major nationwide newspapers.

Losing the party’s outright majority would be a blow for Kishida, but his LDP is expected to remain in government with its junior coalition partner, Komeito. A significant drop in seat numbers, however, could weaken the new prime minister’s grip, increasing the risk of him being dispatched through the “revolving door” that claimed six premiers between 2007-2012.

Surveys in both the Yomiuri and Nikkei newspapers found the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is likely to increase its seat numbers. Ishin -- a conservative-leaning opposition group with a support base in Osaka -- is also likely to gain seats and the Nikkei said it could become the third-largest party. 

However, a survey in the Asahi newspaper published Monday said the LDP is likely to keep substantially more than half the seats in parliament. The CDP, which has formed a left-leaning alliance with other opposition parties, is not generating the level of interest that could lead to a change in government, surveys have shown.

Kishida is set to spend much of Friday giving speeches on the southwestern island of Kyushu, while his main rival, Yukio Edano, will be on the northern island of Hokkaido. Both plan to return to the Tokyo region in the evening. 

The surveys come as Japan enjoys a respite from the pandemic, with seven deaths recorded across the country Oct. 27, as the government prepares to remove restrictions on large events and start a rollout of booster shots. 

Countdown:

Two days to go to the Oct. 31 vote that determines if Kishida can keep enough seats to maintain the outright majority the LDP has held since 2012. When parliament was dissolved for the election, the LDP held 276 seats. If the party slips below the 233 simple majority in the 465-seat lower house, it’s expected to stay in power with the help of its junior coalition partner Komeito, which held 29 seats.

Main Parties:

• Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled the country for all but about four of the last 66 years
• Komeito, which has been in coalition with the LDP most of the time since 1999. Backed by a Buddhist group, it boasts a powerful machine to turn out the vote
• Constitutional Democratic Party, which holds about 75% of the opposition seats. It’s trying to build its numbers with pledges to raise the minimum wage and show it can be trusted to run the government again after its predecessor was sent packing in 2012 following a series of policy U-turns

Other opposition parties include the Japan Communist Party, which held 12 seats in the lower house, Ishin, a metro-based group with 11 seats and the Democratic Party of the People with 10. Independents held 10 seats and there were four vacancies.

Key stories and developments:

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• Cash, Covid and China Weigh on Japan Parties Ahead of Election
• Kuroda Plays Down Risk of Global Inflation Fears Hitting Japan
• Japan’s Kishida Suffers By-Election Setback Before National Vote
• Japan’s Ruling Party on Course for Majority, Kyodo Poll Says

Media Roundup:

• Japan PM Kishida Says to Take Oil Price Support Measures: Jiji
• Japan LDP Projected to Win Single-Party Majority: Asahi Survey
• Kyodo Poll Shows 29% Plan to Vote for LDP in Japan Election

Polls:

Polls published by the Yomiuri and Nikkei newspapers on Friday found the LDP was at risk of losing its outright majority. Its coalition partner Komeito is likely to keep its 29 seats or slightly more, the Nikkei said. 

A separate poll published by NHK on Monday found 48% of respondents said they supported Kishida’s cabinet and 59% said they approved of the government’s handling of the coronavirus, as cases and deaths dwindle rapidly. 

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