Viktor Orban’s Rebuke at the Polls May Not Be All That It Seems

(Bloomberg) -- The opposition parties popping champagne in Hungary after loosening Viktor Orban’s political stranglehold in local elections might want to look at Poland before they get too excited.

Orban’s opponents ousted mayors backed by his ruling party in the capital Budapest and took control of four of the five biggest cities on Sunday. The outcome sparked celebrations at home and among European Union politicians who’ve helplessly watched the Hungarian leader transform his country into an “illiberal democracy” that clashed with the bloc’s mainstream over the rule of law.

“It’s more than a dream,” Guy Verhofstadt, the former Belgian prime minister and current EU parliament member who once called Orban “Europe’s moral crisis,” said on Twitter. “The fightback against illiberalism and state corruption is well underway in Hungary.”

But on the same day, Poland’s anti-immigrant ruling Law & Justice party beat opposition forces in a parliamentary election. Campaigning on a mix of welfare handouts and tirades against gays and liberals, it won more votes than any other party since the end of communism 30 years ago.

And therein lies the lesson: just a year ago Polish opposition parties crushed Law & Justice in municipal elections to take over the leadership of every city with more than 100,000 people.

‘Deserved More’

But victories in rich population centers don’t necessarily translate into gains on the national stage, where the big economic and cultural policies are forged. Law & Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski even lamented that his party didn’t win as many votes as it did in European Parliament elections in May.

“We attained a lot, but we deserve more,” he told cheering supporters after the exit poll was published. “We face four more years of hard work.”

Kaczynski, the force behind the government despite holding no official position other than lawmaker and party chief, boosted pensions and introduced a 500 zloty ($128) a month child subsidy that helped lift above the poverty line the losers of the country’s post-communist transformation.

Orban has also won adoration of many Hungarians with cash handouts since he returned to power in 2010. He has unchecked power on the national level, with a supermajority that allows his Fidesz party to pass any law it wants; and control over courts and every major institution nationwide.

Yacht Orgy

Orban, who gave pensioners vouchers on their utility bills before Sunday’s vote, has already announced that he plans two rounds of economic stimulus next year, adding to already flagged mortgage subsidies and tax breaks.

Yet, as Sunday’s result shows, his hegemony isn’t completely impervious. The release of a video showing an ally rollicking in an orgy on a luxury yacht earlier this month handed the opposition an unexpected weapon to deal Orban his biggest electoral defeat in more than a decade.

But despite the footage -- released on news and porn sites and jarring with the facade of conservative family values Fidesz cultivates -- the candidate still won. And, even amid the opposition gains, Orban’s allies retained control of all county assemblies as well as the majority of large cities.

Uphill Battle

Orban’s support is also buoyed by the EU’s fastest economic growth, rising wages, and a sprawling media operation that has transformed nearly every major broadcaster, newspaper and website into a propaganda mouthpiece for his government.

Hungary’s parliamentary elections are three years away, a long way away for an often bickering gaggle of opposition parties to stay united, especially since Orban has vowed to punish every city that voted against Fidesz by holding back funds.

On election night, though, Orban promised cooperation with all newly elected officials and declared victory for himself. As for the scandal, he said he would take care of it on Monday.

“The elections showed that Hungary’s strongest party is the alliance of Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People’s Party,” Orban said. “We’re going to continue to behave accordingly.”

--With assistance from Marek Strzelecki and Andras Gergely.

To contact the reporters on this story: Wojciech Moskwa in Warsaw at wmoskwa@bloomberg.net;Zoltan Simon in Budapest at zsimon@bloomberg.net;Andrea Dudik in Prague at adudik@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andrea Dudik at adudik@bloomberg.net, Michael Winfrey, Balazs Penz

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