North Korea’s Silence Keeps World in Dark

(Bloomberg) --

Kim Jong Un has not been seen in public for more than two weeks. If he’s hale and hearty, to dispel the frenzied speculation to the opposite, it should be a simple matter of having him pop up somewhere to have his photo taken.

Officials in South Korea say they think Kim is fine. The regime’s ally China is trying to say as little as possible about it. But a Chinese medical team reportedly went to North Korea recently, and it certainly seems something is amiss after the young leader’s recent heart surgery.

State media reported April 22 that Kim sent a message to the Syrian president. Today he’s reported as having thanked officials in Wonsan for their help constructing the coastal tourist region.

Still, there have been no pictures, or reports of him attending a meeting or event, and such rote pronouncements by the regime’s propaganda machine would continue regardless.

While there are also no unusual military movements inside North Korea, that could rapidly change if Kim were to die. There is no pre-ordained successor (though his sister has taken a more prominent role), and power plays could well erupt.

Kim did disappear before in 2014, with chatter he was suffering gout, an ankle injury or even had been overthrown. He showed up six weeks later without explanation, walking with a cane.

So once again on Kim we’re locked in a global guessing exercise. One with enormous potential repercussions.

Global Headlines

Test case | Joe Biden is calling on the Trump administration to vastly expand coronavirus testing capabilities, including a new public health jobs corps of 100,000 people. The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee laid out his vision for safely reopening the economy in a memo today that sharply criticized Donald Trump's testing approach.

• Read more about the phased-in reopening of New York that Governor Andrew Cuomo has sketched out.

• White House task force coordinator Deborah Birx says she’s bothered that Trump’s comments about using disinfectant as a virus treatment are “still in the news,” calling them a “musing.”

Misdirected money | While some mom-and-pop companies wait for virus aid, a 700-person biotech firm that recently paid a multimillion-dollar settlement to the U.S. Justice Department has secured help. A government program touted as a lifeline for firms with fewer than 500 workers has provided tens of millions of dollars in loans to those with much larger payrolls.

• Business groups are pressuring Democratic officials in several states to defer planned minimum-wage increases.

Under fire | Giuseppe Conte is struggling to chart a path out of lockdown for Italy. The prime minister is facing intense scrutiny over the timeline for restarting the economy and last night looked drained, stumbling repeatedly, as he set out his plans. Business leaders and political opponents are demanding Conte move faster to limit the economic damage.

Back in charge | Boris Johnson resumed his duties as U.K. prime minister after two weeks of recuperation from the coronavirus with one item at the top of his in-tray: When will he let Britain return to work? Companies are clamoring for clarity about his plans as a survey of more than 1,000 business leaders showed fewer than one in four are optimistic about their prospects over the next 12 months.

Double threat | Jair Bolsonaro’s promises to stamp out graft and liberalize the economy have underpinned his popularity as Brazilian president. But as Simone Iglesias, Martha Beck and Samy Adghirni report, both are in trouble amid the furor over the resignation of Sergio Moro as justice minister and rising tensions with Economy Minister Paulo Guedes.

What to Watch This Week

• Hong Kong police dispersed protesters in a shopping mall over the weekend, as the pro-democracy movement attempts to regain momentum despite Covid-19 social distancing restrictions.
• Beijing may announce the start date for China’s highest-profile annual political meeting, the National People’s Congress, which was postponed for the first time in decades amid the pandemic.
• Separatists in Yemen have declared self-rule in the south, a major blow to Saudi Arabia’s push to end the devastating civil war it fueled in its neighbor.
• The Trump administration will square off tomorrow against House Democrats over the reach of congressional subpoena power when an appeals court hears a case that's likely to reach the Supreme Court.
• Saudi Arabia has scrapped the death penalty for minors, days after curbing the use of flogging, and says more reforms are to come.

Thanks to all who responded to our pop quiz Friday and congratulations to Don Sinko, who was the first to name South Africa as the nation where gangs have declared a cease-fire because of the virus. Tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... With negative oil prices, ships dawdling at sea with unwanted cargoes, and traders getting creative about where to stash oil, the next chapter in the crude crisis appears inevitable: Great swathes of the petroleum industry are about to start shutting down. As Javier Blas reports, the global economic lockdown as the coronavirus ripped through the oil industry has presented producers and refiners with the worst-case scenario. “We are moving into the end-game,” says Torbjorn Tornqvist, head of commodity trading giant Gunvor Group.

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