No-Deal Brexit Would Cost Ireland 73,000 Jobs, Central Bank Says
If the U.K. tumbles out of the European union without agreement, Ireland’s unemployment rate will rise to 5.8% in 2020.
A no-deal Brexit would cost Ireland more than 73,000 jobs over the next two years, the nation’s central bank said.
If the U.K. tumbles out of the European union without agreement, Ireland’s unemployment rate will rise to 5.8% in 2020 and 6.9% in 2021, the bank forecast in its quarterly bulletin in Dublin on Friday. An accord would mean a much lower rate, below 5% in both years.
“In the event of a disorderly, no deal Brexit, the key channels through which the economy will be affected will be through shocks to the exchange rate, trade, consumption and investment, leading to a marked deterioration in economic conditions,” according to the bank.
Ireland’s economy is considered the most vulnerable in the EU to a no-deal Brexit -- talks on a divorce settlement have stalled over how to keep the Irish border invisible after the U.K. exits the bloc. In a no-deal scenario, growth would ease to 0.8% in 2020, as opposed to 4.3% if a deal can be agreed.
To contact the reporter on this story: Dara Doyle in Dublin at ddoyle1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Vidya Root at vroot@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss, Fergal O'Brien
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.