No-Deal Brexit Chances Plunge Amid Westminster Chaos

(Bloomberg) -- Amid the chaos at Westminster, the chances of no-deal Brexit are receding, bookmakers say.

Ladbrokes Plc’s odds imply a 25 percent chance of the U.K. crashing out of European Union without an agreement before April 1. That compares with 66 percent after a stormy meeting of EU leaders in Salzburg in September. Betway rates the chances of the U.K. exiting without an agreement at 20 percent, compared with 55 percent four months ago.

The U.K. Parliament continues to debate Theresa May’s apparently doomed Brexit deal, with speculation mounting that exit day will be delayed. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Friday he believes Parliament won’t stand for no-deal Brexit. It’s much more likely that politicians will try to stop the U.K. leaving without an agreement, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today program.

Still, the notion that betting odds provide a better guide to the direction of political events than polls was dealt a blow by the U.K.’s 2016 Brexit vote, when odds implied a 90 percent chance of the nation remaining in the EU as the campaign drew to a close. Still, given the no-deal scenario is in the hands of lawmakers, the odds may prove a more reliable guide.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dara Doyle in Dublin at ddoyle1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Vidya Root at vroot@bloomberg.net

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