Morales Exit Throws Political Hand Grenade Into Latin America
Morales Exit Throws Political Hand Grenade Into Latin America
(Bloomberg) -- The toppling of a socialist icon is creating shock waves from Buenos Aires to Washington and pitting Latin American governments against each other.
Mexico, which only recently pledged to stay out of the affairs of other countries, thrust itself into Bolivia’s crisis by granting asylum to former president Evo Morales. Argentina’s president-elect Alberto Fernandez joined Mexico in supporting Morales, saying he’d been the victim of a coup. Predictably, Venezuela and Cuba have both slammed his treatment.
But U.S. allies Brazil and Colombia have been guarded, with President Donald Trump saying Morales’s departure strengthened democracy in the region and his government moving to recognize self-appointed successor, Senator Jeanine Anez. Luis Almagro, secretary general of the Organization of American States, said Morales was at fault for trying to hang onto power via electoral fraud.
The reactions reflect the broader differences between socialist and conservative leaders in a region where the military has at times played a significant role. That means there’s little inclination to find a unified response for their neighbor, even as Bolivia remains beset by violence and there’s no clear path yet toward fresh elections.
Some nations are just simply preoccupied with their own problems. Mass protests have taken a turn for the worse in Chile, where President Sebastian Pinera has faced weeks of unrest.
“Every country is basically using the crisis to mobilize its base,” said Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at Fundacao Getulio Vargas in Sao Paulo. “The left-wing governments say it’s a coup, the right wing governments say it’s a victory for democracy, so there’s basically no leadership.”
Morales’ exit has allowed Mexico to take a stance that distances the country from Trump. The calculation is that Bolivia is not a top policy issue for the White House right now and that a more assertive foreign policy will elevate Mexico’s status in the region.
“Our good relationship with the U.S. shouldn’t be based on submission but on respect and the coexistence of two distinct ideas,” said Marcelo Ebrard, the foreign affairs minister who’s seen as a probable contender for the 2024 presidential election.
Mexico has a long tradition of granting asylum to foreign leaders, from Leon Trotsky to the Shah of Iran. It justified the decision on the grounds Morales’ life was at risk. That’s even as Morales used his refugee status as a platform to attack his rivals at home. “As long as I am alive, the fight continues”, Morales said at Mexico City’s airport, minutes after landing.
The move also potentially provides a distraction from President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s domestic problems and could play well with his base, which includes a strongly left-wing group. While his popularity remains high, he has taken a hit from the inability to control violent drug gangs that run wild in large swathes of the country.
“This also helps Ebrard to position himself as regional leader and improves his standing within his party,” said Daniel Kerner, Eurasia Group’s managing director for Latin America.
That said, giving Morales refuge has received some criticism domestically. Asylum should have been requested by him, not offered by the government, said Andres Rozental, a former Mexico deputy foreign minister.
Asylum is granted “by those being politically persecuted, not politicians that scoff at the constitutional democracy of their country, force a re-election and commit electoral fraud,” Rozental said. Mexico’s foreign ministry didn’t reply to a request for comment.
Argentina Changes
Meanwhile, Fernandez, who takes office in Argentina on Dec. 10, criticized Trump’s anti-Morales statement, saying U.S. foreign policy had regressed to supporting military interventions. That could put him on the wrong foot early in a bilateral relationship that is key for Argentina’s economic success.
Once Fernandez takes office he’ll have to negotiate Argentina’s $56 billion credit line with the Washington-based International Monetary Fund. The U.S. government is the IMF’s largest financier.
A U.S. State Department spokesperson said while the two nations differ on the characterization of events in Bolivia, all democracies should support fundamental principles throughout the Americas including the rule of law.
Fernandez may also face claims that he’s attempting to use Bolivia to distract from questions at home about when he will roll out his economic policies. An official close to him described the incoming leader’s focus on Bolivia as natural given the magnitude of the crisis there.
Some analysts noted that Fernandez is part of a longstanding political movement, Peronism, which historically believed that criticizing a nation on one matter shouldn’t affect broader ties.
“They don’t realize that what happens on one issue has an affect on the other,” said Juan Negri, a political science professor at Torcuato Di Tella University in Buenos Aires. “The U.S. doesn’t work like that -- that power is fungible and all these issues are interconnected, the U.S. sees it as a complete relationship.”
Brasilia Watches
The rapport between Mexico and the incoming Argentine government is being closely watched by the right-wing administration of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, the region’s largest economy. Both Bolsonaro and Fernandez haven’t hidden their ideological differences and Bolivia could become another sticking point in ties. Brazil was swift to recognize Anez as Bolivian president.
In Brasilia, officials warn that Fernandez’s foreign policy direction might have economic consequences for a country which has Brazil as its top trading partner. Meanwhile Mexico’s more active role is a “media attention” move amid Lopez Obrador’s domestic problems, said one.
Venezuela, the person said, will remain the keystone of political differences in the region.
Then there’s the question of Bolivia itself. If the opposition manages to hold power, it could find itself aligning closer to the U.S. and moving away from traditional left-wing friends.
And something similar may happen in Uruguay, where some polls put center-right candidate Luis Lacalle Pou ahead on the Nov. 24 runoff, which if confirmed would put an end to 15 years of rule by the left-wing Broad Front.
--With assistance from Nacha Cattan, Samy Adghirni, Patrick Gillespie, Jorgelina do Rosario and Eric Martin.
To contact the reporter on this story: Juan Pablo Spinetto in Mexico City at jspinetto@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net, Matthew Bristow
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