May’s Tories Plan for Election Amid Deep Divisions Over Brexit

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Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives are taking “pragmatic” steps to prepare for a snap general election amid deep party divisions over the shape of Brexit with just 12 days remaining before Britain’s scheduled departure from the European Union.

“We have got a minority government in a turbulent time so just in terms of sensible pragmatic planning” the party is making preparations, Deputy Party Chairman James Cleverly told Sky News on Sunday. At the same time, he made clear it’s not the option the government is currently pursuing.

His admission signals the U.K. may be heading for a third election in four years if Parliament is unable to resolve the Brexit impasse, after resoundingly defeating the premier’s negotiated departure deal for a third time on Friday. The next scheduled general election is in 2022.

Lawmakers in the House of Commons on Monday will seize control of proceedings from the government for the second time, as they seek an alternative that can command a majority. May’s own cabinet is at war over a potential plan B, with some ministers urging her to take the U.K. out of the EU without a deal on April 12, and others saying they’d quit if that becomes policy.

Some 170 Tories, including 11 cabinet ministers, wrote to May on Friday urging a no-deal departure on April 12, the Sun reported Saturday. The existence of the letter was confirmed by Conservative Party Chairman Brandon Lewis in a BBC radio interview. When Parliament took control of Brexit proceedings for the first time on Wednesday, 157 Tories voted to pursue a no-deal departure. For some, however, that’s unpalatable.

No-Deal Red Line

"I don’t believe that it would be a responsible act to leave without a deal," Justice Secretary David Gauke said on BBC TV’s "Andrew Marr Show” on Sunday. "I wouldn’t be able to remain as a member of a government that pursued that as a policy."

Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd and Business Secretary Greg Clark have also suggested they’d resign rather than support a no-deal Brexit, which the government’s own analysis has shown could crash the pound, damage the economy and strangle cross-border trade. European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot, in a Handlesblatt interview on Sunday, said a no-deal exit would put pressure on the pound and cause “significant repricing in the markets.”

Gauke said the government will have to “consider very closely what Parliament decides to do" when it tries to narrow down the options on Monday. The House of Commons voted on eight different options on Wednesday, rejecting all. Monday’s proceedings are aimed at seeing if there can be a majority for any.

Softening Brexit

A proposal to keep the U.K. in a customs union lost by just six votes and is likely to be brought back for debate on Monday. Other plans in the mix would seek a Norway-style arrangement by staying in the single market, and the so-called Common Market 2.0 proposal to combine membership of a customs union and the single market.

Rank-and-file Labour lawmaker Lisa Nandy on Sky’s “Sophy Ridge on Sunday” said she sees strong cross-parliamentary support for a soft Brexit, and if May tilted toward the center by adopting a plan to stay in a customs union and guaranteeing Parliament a say in negotiations on the future relationship, her departure deal could get over the line.

‘Can’t Go On’

If Parliament opts for a softer Brexit, it’ll put May in a bind. That’s because Brexiteer ministers have threatened to quit if she accepts a customs union, the Sunday Times said.

The deadlock “can’t go on,” and “it’s time for a Brexit cabinet of national unity,” May’s former policy chief, George Freeman, wrote on Twitter on Sunday. Former Prime Minister John Major told the BBC that he would have been considering forming a unity government "for some time," and that if any snap election fails to produce a conclusive result, that’s what should happen.

Also being debated by the Commons is whether to hold a confirmatory referendum pitting whatever Brexit deal emerges against the option of staying in the bloc. That’s an alternative the opposition Labour Party is increasingly embracing, with Deputy Leader Tom Watson telling the BBC it’s "the only way we can bring the country back together now.”

Tory Maneuvers

Labour is gearing up for a general election and will “be ready” for the U.K. to take part in European parliamentary elections in May if they’re required in any lengthy Brexit extension, Watson said. His shadow cabinet colleague, Emily Thornberry, told Sky she thought participation in EU elections could be avoided, and that Britain should aim to leave the EU "but not go far."

That’s because “in our hearts we want to remain, but the difficulty is we have to square that with democracy," she said.

After May promised her party should would quit, the weekend papers are full of reports of maneuvers by MPs including Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss to succeed the premier as Tory leader. Other potential candidates include former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Home Secretary Sajid Javid and Environment Secretary Michael Gove.

With a leadership contest looming, pro-European Tories are seeking to raise their voice to act as a counterbalance to the Brexiteers in the European Research Group. Co-ordinated by Rudd, former Education Secretary Nicky Morgan, former Deputy Prime Minister Damian Green and influential rank-and-file Tory Nicholas Soames, the grandson of Winston Churchill, the parliamentary grouping of "One Nation" Tories say they won’t back a candidate who favors a no-deal Brexit.

"We’ve allowed our voice to be drowned out in this very unfortunate and unpleasant debate over Brexit that has hijacked the agenda,” Soames said on Sunday in an interview. "We will be looking to find and support a candidate for the leadership who has a proper liberal conservative view that is fit for the 2020s and not the 1920s."

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Steve Geimann

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