May Risks Fresh Defeat on Day U.K. Meant to Leave: Brexit Update
Theresa May’s Northern Irish allies, the DUP, confirm they won’t back the Withdrawal Agreement in Friday’s vote.
(Bloomberg) -- Theresa May makes a desperate push to get at least the main part of her Brexit divorce deal through Parliament on Friday, the day the U.K. was meant to be leaving the European Union. To stand even a slim chance, the prime minister was forced to leave the vote on Britain’s future ties to the bloc until a later date; even so, she faces seemingly impossible odds.
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Key Developments:
- May’s Northern Irish allies, the DUP, confirm they won’t back the Withdrawal Agreement in Friday’s vote
- Vote expected at 2:30 p.m.
- Read our guide to the parliamentary numbers here
- SNP lawmakers suspect Labour MPs will back the deal. Pound rises.
Labour Said To be Confident of Defeating May (11:35 a.m.)
The Labour Party is confident of beating the government’s motion on Friday, an official familiar with the matter said, adding that any rebellion among its members is likely to be fewer than 10 MPs.
Meanwhile one of the lawmakers thought to have been a potential rebel, Lisa Nandy, said in an interview that while the government is moving in the right direction on assurances regarding the U.K.’s future relationship with the European Union, it isn’t enough to win her vote.
“What they have offered isn’t enough for most of us to support them today,’’ Nandy said. “What I am hoping is that out of the process on Monday we get a customs union,” she said, referring to the so-called indicative votes process in which members of Parliament are trying to find a consensus on an alternative to May’s Brexit deal.
Iain Duncan Smith Says He’ll Back May (11:20 a.m.)
Leading Brexiteer and former Tory party leader Iain Duncan Smith said he’ll back May’s deal because he wants to avoid a long Brexit delay.
“Nothing huge has changed within nature of the bill that’s likely to come ahead of us, but I do think what has changed is the balance of risk,” he told Parliament. He said MPs need to “shut down the debate” about future referendums on Brexit. “If we say we stand up for 17.4 million people, we have to give those people what they asked for.”
Independent Group Plans to Stand in EU Elections (11:10 a.m.)
The Independent Group, made up of 11 MPs who quit the Labour and Conservative parties, are pretty confident May’s deal isn’t going through today. They set out plans to run in the European elections that they now believe are inevitable.
They’ll stand on an anti-Brexit platform as “Change U.K. -- The Independent Group,” with former Conservative Heidi Allen as their interim leader. There’s a rush on now to complete the legal procedures and select candidates.
SNP Tells Labour MPs Not to Bend and Back May (11 a.m.)
Scottish National Party lawmakers told Labour MPs not to bend and support May’s Brexit deal, amid growing speculation some could be persuaded.
“It appears some Labour MPs may be getting bought by that game-playing in spite of the damage that it’s going to cause to our constituents, our poorest constituents,” the SNP’s Neil Gray said. MP Ian Blackford joined in, warning Labour lawmakers not to support the deal and usher in a “Tory Brexit” and a “right-wing” Conservative leader.
Varadkar to Meet Macron, Merkel Next Week (10:55 a.m.)
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Tuesday, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Dublin on Thursday.
Discussions will center around Brexit -- the German and French governments have long been keen to discuss exactly how Ireland will secure the integrity of the single market in the event of no-deal. In January, Varadkar told Merkel his government couldn’t accept the return of border controls on the island of Ireland even if the U.K. crashed out of the EU without a deal.
Dodds Signals DUP Won’t Back Deal (10:40 a.m.)
The Democratic Unionist Party’s Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds, just signaled his party won’t back May’s deal today because of its longstanding opposition to the Irish backstop provisions in it.
“This is a problem for the union; let not people pretend that it is otherwise,” Dodds said. He said his party had worked hard in talks with the premier to try to find a way past the impasse, before concluding: “Sadly, we have not made sufficient progress.”
May needs the support of the DUP’s 10 lawmakers to get her deal through -- not least because if the Northern Irish Party swings behind her, so too will many of her rebellious Tory backbenchers.
Labour Fears Handing Mandate to May’s Successor (10:25 a.m.)
Labour’s shadow solicitor-general pointed to another reason the government will struggle to win support from opposition lawmakers.
“We will never mortgage all of our futures on the outcome of a Conservative leadership election in which none of us will have a say in the outcome,” Nick Thomas-Symonds told the chamber.
The point is that after Theresa May told her party earlier in the week she’d quit if she gets her withdrawal agreement past the House of Commons, it means her successor will be in charge of negotiating Britain’s future relationship with the EU. And the Conservative Party membership appears likely to select a politician who favors a harder Brexit than the one May has proposed -- perhaps Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab.
Cox Tries to Lure Labour Support (10:05 a.m.)
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox tried to win over some Labour lawmakers to support the government’s motion. He told Gareth Snell the government would have supported his amendment today, had the speaker selected it.
Snell’s proposal -- backed by fellow Labour MPs Lisa Nandy, Caroline Flint and Rosie Cooper -- would have empowered the House of Commons to set the direction of U.K. negotiations on its future relationship with the EU, and given it a final say on any eventual deal.
“There will be new mechanisms and new procedures so that this House can be properly consulted and have a particular role in the manner in which the political declaration -- once it is finalized within this House -- will be negotiated in that second stage,” Cox said.
When Snell requested provisions be made “in clear text in that bill in black and white” in the legislation confirming Brexit, Cox replied: “If it requires an amendment to that legislation, we would obviously consider its detail carefully, but we would be minded to accept such.”
MPs to Take Over Commons Agenda on Wednesday (9:30 a.m.)
Rank-and-file members of Parliament could take over the House of Commons agenda for a third day next Wednesday, under moves to identify a Brexit Plan B led by Conservative Oliver Letwin.
According to the latest Commons timetable, the process of so-called Brexit indicative votes process will resume on Monday, and again potentially on Wednesday, if necessary.
Monday’s debates are expected to narrow down the Plan B options – which were all rejected by the House of Commons earlier this week. MPs will propose what options they want to be debated again, and Speaker John Bercow will select which ones go forward to be voted on. After the first round of indicative votes, the most popular options were for a confirmatory referendum to approve any deal, and for a customs union.
If there is no clear winner among the Plan B options on Monday, MPs could try again on Wednesday.
Cox: All Negotiated Exits Need Withdrawal Agreement (9:45 a.m.)
Opening the debate for the government, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox tells members of Parliament that voting for the Withdrawal Agreement would finally provide certainty over Brexit.
“All negotiated exits from the European Union will require this withdrawal agreement to be approved,” he said.
Speaker Selects No Amendments (9:40 a.m.)
House of Commons Speaker John Bercow tells members of Parliament he hasn’t selected any of the three proposed amendments to the government’s motion.
DUP Confirms It Won’t Back Government Today (Earlier)
DUP Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson confirmed his party’s 10 members of Parliament will oppose the government in Friday’s vote, and warned that there’s trouble ahead for Theresa May -- and her successor -- even if she gets the motion approved.
“This deal will ensure that Northern Ireland never left the European Union,” Wilson told Talk Radio on Friday. “It would be used as a bargaining tool by the EU to ensure the U.K. as a whole never properly left the EU.’’
Wilson said his party would move to block any legislation that would be needed after today’s vote to stop May’s deal getting parliamentary approval. He did, though, pledge to continue working with the government to secure Brexit.
“We only lose Brexit if the government abandons the project,’’ Wilson said. “The government will continue to need our support.’’
Fox: ‘Last Real Chance’ to Vote for Brexit (9:10 a.m.)
International Trade Secretary Liam Fox used the broadcast round this morning to urge members of Parliament to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement, saying they “may find this is the last real chance to vote for Brexit.”
Voting against the withdrawal agreement risks creating a “new cliff-edge” on April 12, handing EU leaders a veto on whether the U.K. leaves the bloc without a deal, he said during interviews with the BBC. He also warned that Britain’s political structures are at risk if voters feel “betrayed” at Brexit not being delivered, and accused the Labour Party of playing party politics.
Fox also said while Theresa May has pledged to step down if Brexit is delivered, she has made no commitment on what she plans to do if her deal fails. He declined to say if he’d run in a Conservative Party leadership contest, and said MPs need to “focus on the task at hand.”
Earlier:
--With assistance from Tim Ross, Dara Doyle and Robert Hutton.
To contact the reporters on this story: Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net;Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net;Jessica Shankleman in London at jshankleman@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Emma Ross-Thomas at erossthomas@bloomberg.net, ;Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs
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