Maduro Suffers Rare Defeat in Hugo Chavez’s Home State

(Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro suffered a rare electoral loss Sunday when his candidate was defeated in a vote to elect the next governor of Barinas state, the birthplace of Hugo Chavez, who started the so-called socialist revolution.

Jorge Arreaza, a former foreign minister and Chavez son-in-law, conceded defeat to little-known opposition candidate Sergio Garrido. The Electoral Council said Garrido took 55% of the vote against 41% for Arreaza with a turnout of about 51.5%.

While the result won’t immediately weaken Maduro’s grip on power, it’s an embarrassing turn of events for the socialist regime given that a first vote on Nov. 21 was invalidated by top court loyalists. After the opposition candidate Freddy Superlano was barred from the election -- followed by another two disqualifications -- Garrido was tapped to compete in the re-run. Arreaza replaced Chavez’s brother Argenis.

“Mr. Garrido has been elected governor and as such we recognize him,” Arreaza told followers Monday, adding that the government’s socialist party needs to renew itself and make amends with “humbleness.” As of noon Monday, neither Maduro nor any other high-ranking government official had reacted to the loss. 

Maduro’s attempt to gain more international recognition in the November regional election by allowing outside observers from the European Union backfired following the Barinas incident. After overhauling the electoral body and reinstating the political rights of some foes, the government has been hoping for some sanctions relief.

The vote points to the limits of the government’s power when the opposition unites behind a single candidate, said Felix Seijas, head of local pollster Delphos.

“The government can always go out and say the result was the opposite,” Seijas said. “The problem is that the cost would be very high and they’re not willing to pay that cost yet” on the international stage.

The win is a boon for the battered opposition that has spent the past two decades unsuccessfully trying to oust Chavez and then Maduro -- first through elections then through street protests and boycotts. 

Since Hugo Chavez stormed into the presidency in 1999, family members have governed his home state. First his father and then older brother. 

In that time span, Chavez centralized power to try to install socialism in the oil producing nation before passing away in 2013. Maduro has ruled since and overseen a disastrous economy wrecked by hyperinflation, recession and a surge in poverty that’s driven millions to flee. 

“What happened in Barinas represents a milestone in Venezuelans’ fight to resist a usurper regime,” opposition leader Juan Guaido said in a statement. “Today, we showed that unity of purpose and action is the way to achieve the return of democracy.” 

On Monday, he called for unity and vowed to further mobilize the citizenry toward the next presidential election.

Transparent, Peaceful

Garrido said that the people of Barinas had won, and congratulated the armed forces for fulfilling their constitutional role.

“The process was transparent and peaceful,” he told ecstatic supporters. 

On Monday, crowds gathered in Barinas center, reveling in the outcome, and to pack the local cathedral to celebrate Mass. “I came to congratulate the comrade,” said 70-year-old Orlando Escarpeti outside the cathedral. “We hope he leads a solid government, responsive to the people.”

The governor-elect was ebullient following the Mass.

“Barinas has led Venezuelans to realize that the government can be defeated in elections if united in the ballots. We’re convinced we can achieve this in the immediate future,” he said.

The election was a tough contest with the government holding concert-like rallies and putting on a large propaganda display. Residents also reported a stabilization of fuel supplies during the campaign after months of shortages that often forced them to queue for days for gasoline.

“Barinas doesn’t want anything to do with the ruling party,” said public administration worker Arelis Cedeno, 48, after casting her ballot. “Over 20 years with the same people governing Barinas. Who can tell me that now they are going to do well?”

In the short term, Maduro’s control over the main levers of power from congress to the courts and military won’t be affected. But it shows what the opposition is capable of if it moves beyond infighting and division, according to pollster Luis Vicente Leon. The next presidential election is slated for 2024. 

“The results today don’t change the difficult political reality in Venezuela, and we’re very far from a stable solution, but they’re definitely a good lesson about the power of the vote to push for changes, even when the electoral conditions are against you,” Leon wrote on his Twitter account. 

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