Macron May Have Lost EU Vote, But He's Looking Good for 2022

(Bloomberg) -- Sunday’s European parliamentary election wasn’t a great night for Emmanuel Macron, but it was worse for all his rivals. And that means the French president remains in pole position for re-election in 2022.

Macron’s party, Republic on the Move, finished behind Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in the EU ballot, an embarrassment for the president who had turned the vote into a de facto referendum on his vision of greater EU integration.

But Republic on the Move’s 22.4% of the vote wasn’t far off what Macron won in the first round of the 2017 presidential election, meaning he’s held on to his base -- no small feat for an incumbent party. National Rally took 23.3%, less than the 25% it took five years ago, and not much more than Le Pen’s first-round showing in the presidential contest -- so she isn’t broadening her appeal.

Elsewhere, France’s leftist parties are a mess, atomized between leaders who refuse to unify into one political movement. And the mainstream center-right party, The Republicans, won just 8.5%, down from the 20% it took in the 2017 presidential ballot.

“What’s clear is that a presidential race is already underway between Macron and Le Pen -- and it’s in the interests of both that their head-to-head be sustained to the exclusion of other contenders,” said Jim Shields, professor of French studies at Warwick University. “Macron knows his big chance for re-election lies in facing off with Le Pen.”

Macron’s approval ratings are in the mid-20% range, hurt by a sense that he’s out of touch and that his policies favor the rich. But a majority of French won’t consider voting for Le Pen because of her far-right views. According to an May 9 Elabe poll, 61% of French say they have a “negative” opinion of Le Pen.

Macron swept aside Le Pen 66%-34% in the second round of the 2017 presidential election, and while the score may be narrower in a re-match, there’s no sign a majority of the French are ready to vote for a party with a racist past that used to call for pulling France out of the euro. (Sunday’s European vote was one round only, using proportional representation).

Macron campaign advisers Sunday night said overall they didn’t find his score that bad. And they focused on the disastrous showings from the center-left and center-right parties that dominated French politics until Macron swept them aside two years ago. In addition, the strong 13.5% won by Green parties is a vote that Macron can realistically expect to win over.

“It was a disastrous night for traditional parties,” said Bruno Le Maire, Macron’s finance minister.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gregory Viscusi in Paris at gviscusi@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Richard Bravo

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