Macron, Le Pen Would Near Tie in First-Round Vote, Poll Finds

(Bloomberg) -- President Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen would run neck and neck in the first round of a French presidential election if the voting took place today, a poll for the Journal du Dimanche newspaper found.

But in a second round, the incumbent would trounce Le Pen, the poll found, showing essentially that she has gained support from 2017 but would still lose badly.

The poll presented scenarios involving three different center-right candidates: Xavier Bertrand, the head of the Hauts de France region in the country’s north, Valerie Pecresse, the president of the Ile de France region around Paris, and Francois Baroin, a former government minister who heads the Association of French Mayors.

In each case, Le Pen would have 28% of the vote, the poll for the Sunday newspaper found. Macron would get 27% of the vote against Bertrand and Baroin and 28% against Pecresse. In every scenario, Le Pen and Macron would be the top two in the multi-candidate fields.

The poll found Macron would win a second-round faceoff with Le Pen by 55% to 45%.

Macron was elected in 2017 to a five-year term, so the next presidential election occurs in the spring of 2022. In the French system, the top two candidates in the first round advance to a second round.

Of the three potential center-right candidates, Bertrand would get 10% in a first round, Pecresse would get 7% and Baroin would score 11%, the poll found.

Ifop surveyed 1,396 people on behalf of JDD from Oct. 29-30.

To contact the reporter on this story: Phil Serafino in Paris at pserafino@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Celeste Perri at cperri@bloomberg.net, Ian Fisher, Linus Chua

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