Lithuanian Opposition Has Vote Advantage After First Round Win

(Bloomberg) -- Lithuania’s biggest opposition party won the first round of general elections, putting it in pole position to form a government should it prevail in final voting in two weeks’ time.

With 99.6% of Sunday’s ballots counted, the center-right Homeland Union was ahead of the Farmers and Greens Union, which leads the ruling coalition. Despite the coronavirus-stricken economy being on course to outperform all but one other European Union member this year, a swathe of the Baltic country’s 2.8 million people are unhappy at uneven gains from European integration.

“I hope we’ll have enough seats to form a coalition and the government,” said Ingrida Simonyte, Homeland’s candidate to become prime minister. While more associated with nations like Hungary and Poland, she accused the government of damaging freedom of speech, the rule of law and other democratic principles. “What’s very important for us is to defend European values.”

Bidding for his party to become Lithuania’s first to win a second term in office, Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis ran on his economic record. Since Covid-19 struck, his government has paid handouts to retired people and families, and helped companies keep workers on. Output is set to contract as little as 1.5% this year -- a forecast that’s bettered only by Ireland within the EU.

But there have been scandals: an eight-month stint where the cabinet consisted solely of men, a court ruling that the government obstructed journalists and a third of high-school students failing a math graduation exam. The prime minister also backed out of a promise to quit his job after losing the presidential election in 2019.

Women in Government

While also falling short, Simonyte -- a former finance minister -- improved her standing and wants women to represent at least half of the new cabinet. Homeland was more popular in Lithuania’s cities than its regions, where voters remember grueling austerity measures she helped impose in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis.

Homeland had 24.8% support, while Skvernelis’s party had 17.5%. The pandemic loomed over polling stations, with voters required to stand more than a meter apart, cover their faces and bring their own pens. But turnout was similar to previous elections, at just over 47%.

Most party heads declined to say how the next alliance may shape up. Six parties passed the 5% threshold to enter parliament -- clouding the path to who gets control. The next round of voting, which will select the remaining 50% of seats in parliament, is tricky to predict and the constituencies aren’t tracked by pollsters.

“The real drama will begin after the second round over the formation of the coalition,” said Rima Urbonaite, a political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University in Vilnius. “That won’t be an easy process.”

Skvernelis said he’d be happy with second place in the initial round, calling it “a fantastic result.”

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