Latin American Politics Still a Military Affair

(Bloomberg) --

In the end it was the military that helped settle it.

Having hung on for weeks in the face of protests and opposition claims he’d rigged an election, Bolivia’s socialist President Evo Morales was forced into a corner yesterday.

First the Organization of American States said widespread irregularities meant it was statistically unlikely Morales obtained enough votes to avoid a runoff. Then the armed forces chief called for him to go. And even as he described it as a coup, South America’s longest-serving leader swiftly obliged.

The military has a long history of mixing with politics, including dictatorships, and the sight of troops on the streets can spur painful memories. Although it treads carefully these days, it still holds sway in countries across the region.

In Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro has hung on in the face of immense international pressure, with the army behind him. Witness the recent protests in Ecuador and Chile, where leaders have been quick to appear in public, flanked by senior officers.

In Brazil, a right-wing former army officer is in the presidency, with other former officers in key roles.

Argentina, with painful memories of the 1976-1983 dictatorship, is one outlier.

Where Bolivia goes from here is unclear. There’s confusion over succession as the three officials who were next in line to replace Morales also stepped down. Either way, the military will have a keen interest.

Global Headlines

Unrest rages | Hong Kong saw one of its most violent days since protests began in June, with clashes between police and protesters leaving downtown areas paralyzed, transportation networks hobbled and two men clinging to life. The unrest raised more questions about police methods to dispel anti-government demonstrations. It also saw the biggest loss in Hong Kong stocks in about three months, underscoring fears about an economy already in recession.

Yes men | Some of Donald Trump’s inner circle failed to check his effort to investigate Democratic rival Joe Biden that set in motion the impeachment inquiry now engulfing his presidency. As Steven T. Dennis reports, transcripts released by House impeachment investigators offer no evidence that Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney or Secretary of State Michael Pompeo tried to restrain Trump, highlighting his preference for advisers who don't question him.

• The start of public impeachment hearings in the House this week will test whether Democratic efforts to investigate Trump risk hurting the party in the 2020 election.
• Democrats signaled their willingness to let some witnesses requested by Republicans testify at the hearings, but only people with knowledge of the president’s actions. And not Hunter Biden or the whistle-blower whose complaint sparked the inquiry.

Political deadlock | Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will struggle more than ever to form a government after his Socialist party lost seats in yesterday’s election. His is still the biggest party, but he has nowhere near a majority, even with the backing of his natural allies. Weak minority governments have become the new normal in Spain, and even that looks some way off for Sanchez.

A continent burns | Australia is bracing for another week of devastating bushfires, with swaths of the eastern seaboard and areas of greater Sydney facing a “catastrophic” threat that’s unprecedented at this time of year. The devastation comes as the federal government refuses to link the crisis with climate change, vowing instead to prosecute those protesting against companies with large carbon footprints.

Space threats | The U.S. intelligence community is updating its assessment of the space-warfare capabilities of Russia and China over concerns about advances in their ability to jam, ram or destroy satellites in orbit. As Tony Capaccio writes, Air Force General John Hyten, now the U.S.’s No. 2 military officer, requested the National Intelligence Estimate before he left his prior command at the U.S. Strategic Command.

What to Watch

• Romanian President Klaus Iohannis won a first round election to set up a runoff in two weeks against a former prime minister, Democrat leader Viorica Dancila.
• European Union foreign ministers meet in Brussels today and tomorrow to discuss Syria, Afghanistan and Iran.
• President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet Trump at the White House Wednesday amid lingering rifts over Turkey’s purchase of a Russian missile-defense system and a U.S. case against state-lender Halkbank on charges of evading sanctions on Iran.
• Leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa gather in Brasilia for a two-day summit Wednesday and Thursday where Brazil is expected to try to convince China and Russia to drop support for Maduro.
• A Malaysian judge today ordered ex-premier Najib Razak to defend himself against all charges in the trial involving a former unit of troubled state-owned fund 1MDB. He'll take the stand on Dec. 3 as the defense’s first witness.

Thanks to all who responded to our pop quiz Friday and congratulations to reader Owais ur Rehman Maan, who was the first to name Emmanuel Macron as the person who described NATO as being in a state of “brain death.” Tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... Britain is under increasing pressure to return its last African colony, the tropical Chagos Islands. In February, the International Court of Justice ruled the 1965 excision of the islands from Mauritius unlawful because it wasn’t based on the free will of the people. The UN endorsed the ruling and now the clock is ticking towards the Nov. 22 deadline. Yet the U.K. insists it is not ceding control any time soon.

--With assistance from Karen Leigh and Ben Sills.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Ruth Pollard at rpollard2@bloomberg.net, Karl Maier

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.