Poll Finds LDP’s Outright Majority at Risk: Japan Election

(Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party for the first time in 12 years may not be able to hold onto its outright parliamentary majority after this Sunday’s general election, according to a poll published by broadcaster FNN.

The survey bodes ill for the new leader, who suffered a blow at the weekend when his party lost an upper house special election in Shizuoka, west of Tokyo. Stocks fell in Tokyo trading Monday with some market players saying the vote added to political uncertainty. “There’s a bit of wariness over what’ll happen at the general elections following results from Shizuoka,” said Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co.

While the LDP would likely cling to power thanks to its junior coalition partner Komeito, falling below 233 of the 465 seats in the lower house would be a substantial loss for the long-ruling party. The LDP held 276 seats before the lower house of parliament was dissolved for the Oct. 31 vote. 

FNN surveyed 15,045 people, finding the LDP is fighting close races in many constituencies in Tokyo and other urban areas, and struggling in Osaka. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party could increase its numbers by as much as 30 seats compared with the some 110 it held before the campaign began, FNN said.

A major loss of seats in the vote could hobble Kishida’s three-week-old government and increase the chances of him joining a long list of short-serving premiers. Broadcaster FNN noted the fight is extremely close in about 20% of constituencies, leaving substantial uncertainty about the final result. 

Countdown:

Six days to go to the Oct. 31 vote. While polling shows the LDP coalition will prevail, the key factor will be the margin of victory. A significant drop in seats would not bode well for Kishida with the ruling coalition facing an election next year in the upper house. 

Before the 465-seat lower house was dissolved for the vote, the LDP held 276 seats and its junior coalition partner Komeito held 29. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party held 112 with allies and is trying to build its numbers with pledges to raise the minimum wage and increase taxes on high-income earners. 

Main Parties:

• Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled the country for all but about four of the last 66 years
• Komeito, which has been in coalition with the LDP most of the time since 1999. Backed by a Buddhist group, it boasts a powerful machine to turn out the vote
• Constitutional Democratic Party, the main opposition group. It’s trying to show it can be trusted to run the government again after its predecessor was sent packing in 2012 following a series of policy U-turns

Other opposition parties include the Japan Communist Party, which held 12 seats in the lower house, Ishin, a metro-based group with 11 seats and the Democratic Party of the People with 10. Independents held 10 seats and there were four vacancies.

Key stories and developments:

• Japan’s Kishida Suffers By-Election Setback Before National Vote
• Japan’s Ruling Party on Course for Majority, Kyodo Poll Says
• Japan’s Election Unlikely to Bring More Representation for Women
• Kishida Defends Japan Sales Tax From Opponents’ Calls for Cut
• Japan’s Future at Stake in Oct. 31 Vote, Premier Kishida Says

Media Roundup:

• Kyodo Poll Shows 29% Plan to Vote for LDP in Japan Election

Polls:

Almost 30% of voters plan to choose the ruling LDP in the proportional vote in Japan’s upcoming election on Oct. 31, a poll release over the weekend by Kyodo News showed. About 11% plan to vote for the main opposition party and 19% said they will pick one of the opposition parties. Around 48% said they have no positive expectations for Kishida’s economic policies, according to the Kyodo poll.

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