Biden Ad Aims at Omaha’s Single Elector: Campaign Update
Kanye West All But Confirms He’s a Spoiler: Campaign Update
(Bloomberg) -- The Biden campaign is running ads aimed at Omaha’s single elector. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s running mate won’t affect the race. And President Donald Trump is sending surrogates on a bus tour.
There are 88 days until the election.
Other Developments:
Biden Ad Aims at Omaha’s Single Elector
The Biden campaign is running ads in Omaha, Nebraska which appear aimed at picking up the area’s single presidential elector.
Along with Maine, Nebraska gives out some of its electors by congressional district, including the 2nd Congressional District, which includes Omaha and its suburbs.
The Biden campaign has reserved ad time in the area from October 6 through November 2 worth about $266,000 so far, an indication that it thinks the elector is within reach, according to data from Advertising Analytics.
The area leans Republican, however, and the only time its elector didn’t go with the rest of the state to the GOP nominee was in 2008, when Barack Obama won it after similar targeting.
Even though it’s just a single elector, there is a scenario where Omaha is decisive. If Biden won Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Trump won the rest of the states he won in 2016, the race would come down to the electors in Nebraska and Maine’s congressional districts.
If either campaign won two electors, it would have 270, enough to win the election outright. If each campaign won one elector, the race would be tied at 269-269 and would head to the House of Representatives to be decided.
Pelosi Says Biden’s Running Mate Won’t Matter (1:17 p.m.)
Pelosi said Biden’s pick for running mate likely won’t change the presidential race despite fevered expectation in Washington as politics watchers await his decision.
In an interview on MSNBC, the California Democrat said that there’s not much evidence that the vice presidential selection matters.
“I don’t think it matters who the vice presidential candidate is historically,” she said. “It has never mattered. Lyndon Johnson for victory, Sarah Palin for defeat, but by and large it’s really all about the two candidates for president.”
Political scientists are split on the question. Some argue that certain picks, like a long-serving elected official, can make a marginal difference in their home state, while others say there’s no evidence that the vice presidential pick affects the outcome at all.
One exception: A 2010 study from Stanford University found that Palin may have cost 2008 Republican nominee John McCain as many as 2.1 million votes.
Trump Is Sending Surrogates on a Bus Tour of Florida (10:41 a.m.)
The Trump campaign is sending well-known supporters on bus tours of battleground states, beginning in Pennsylvania and Florida, which is dealing with a resurgence of coronavirus cases.
With traditional campaign rallies on hold due to the pandemic, Trump will instead use surrogates, including his son, Eric, to drum up excitement on the campaign trail.
In a statement Friday, the campaign said that one tour will begin in Kissimmeee, Florida, on Aug. 10. The other, named the “Women for Trump” tour, will start the same day in Salfordville, Pennsylvania. The tours will have a rotation of Trump supporters with local, state and national profiles, the campaign said.
The campaign said that the surrogates will visit campaign field offices, and encourage voters to turn out for Trump on election day. The RealClear Politics average of polls show Trump trailing Biden by 6.4 percentage points, narrowed from Biden’s 10-point lead a few weeks ago.
Eric Trump will be in Florida on Monday. He’s scheduled to be joined by Corey Lewandowski, a campaign senior adviser; Pam Bondi, former Florida attorney general; and Florida Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nunez.
The event beginning in Pennsylvania will be attended by Lara Trump, Eric’s wife, and campaign advisers Mercedes Schlapp and Katrina Pierson. -- Mario Parker
Biden Ahead by 11 Points in Michigan Poll (9:29 a.m.)
Biden is ahead by double digits in Michigan, a critical Electoral College state that Trump barely won in 2016.
In a poll from Epic MRA released Friday, 51% of likely voters in Michigan supported Biden and 40% backed Trump.
Trump fared poorly on a question of how he is doing as president, with 59% giving him a negative rating and 39% a positive one.
Another question indicated that Michigan voters may be seeing the race as a referendum on Trump.
When asked solely about Trump, 49% said they would definitively vote to replace Trump, 37% said they would vote to re-elect him and 10% said they would consider voting for someone else.
The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted July 25-30. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Kanye West Says He is ‘Walking’ for President Instead of Running (6:34 a.m.)
West all but confirmed he is running a spoiler campaign for the presidency to draw votes from Democratic nominee Joe Biden, amid reports that GOP operatives are helping him get on the ballot.
“I’m not going to argue with you. Jesus is King,” West told a Forbes reporter after the reporter pointed out the artist cannot win since he won’t be on enough ballots to garner the necessary 270 electoral votes.
Forbes said West insisted he was “walking,” for president, rather than running, but quickly added that he was “walking ... to win.”
Several news outlets have reported that West’s bid to get on the ballot is being helped by Republican operatives hoping to peel votes away from Biden and boost Trump, including in some key battleground states like Wisconsin.
Last month, his wife, Kim Kardashian-West, in an Instagram story expressed concern for his current mental state given the artist’s bipolar disorder. -- Emma Kinery
Professional Elections Analysts Don’t Agree on the Tossup States
The professional analysts who make Electoral College predictions are saying some unexpected states may be in play, to Biden’s advantage.
In its first battleground map of the 2020 election, NBC News puts Biden as likely to win the six states that the race has been centered on to date: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Instead, it says the toss-up states will be Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, which have been considered safely Republican.
CBS News puts only Michigan in Biden’s column, but also adds Georgia and Ohio as toss-ups.
Inside Elections lists only Georgia and North Carolina as true tossups, with Biden at least somewhat favored in the other battlegrounds.
The University of Virginia Center for Politics hews more closely to the swing states that have been targeted so far, putting Michigan and Pennsylvania as likely Biden states and leaving Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin as tossups.
Poll Shows Lindsey Graham Tied with Democratic Challenger
Graham is tied with his Democratic challenger in the South Carolina Senate race, according to a new poll.
In a Quinnipiac University Poll released Thursday, the long-serving Republican senator received 44% support, as did former South Carolina Democratic Party chair Jaime Harrison, with 9% undecided.
“He has been a firebrand advocate for national defense and a leader of his party for 17 years -- but has Lindsey Graham’s allegiance to the president put him in jeopardy?” said Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy. “The numbers suggest his tenure on the Hill is in trouble.”
The poll also showed 40% of South Carolina voters saying Graham was too supportive of Trump, 39% saying he has the right attitude and 10% saying he is not supportive enough.
The poll of 914 self-identified registered voters in South Carolina was conducted July 30 to Aug. 3. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.2 percentage points.
Coming Up
Chasten Buttigieg and Jill Biden will hold an “Out for Biden Conversation” at 7:15 p.m. on Friday.
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