Voters Still Favor Casting Ballots in Person: Campaign Update

(Bloomberg) -- A new poll shows that a plurality of voters favor turning out in person on Election Day. Democratic Senate candidates are ahead in three key states. And Democratic nominee Joe Biden will spend at least $100 million explaining to voters how to cast their ballots this year.

There are 46 days to the election.

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• Barr Goes All-In for Trump Campaign Themes Weeks Before Election​​​​​​​
• Trump to Kill What’s Left of Iran Deal Then Confront UN Assembly

Nearly Half of Voters Plan to Cast Ballots in Person

Almost half of registered voters across the U.S. still plan to cast their ballot in person on Election Day, despite a surge in vote-by-mail linked to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Friday.

The survey showed that 46% of registered voters say they plan to head to the polls on Nov. 3, with 35% saying they will vote by mail and 14% planning to go to an early-voting location before Election Day.

Voters who back President Donald Trump overwhelmingly favor voting in person, with 63% planning to do so, compared to 22% who plan to vote early or by mail. Trump has repeatedly disparaged voting by mail, saying without justification that it is rife with fraud. Among Biden voters, 46% said they will vote early or by mail, while 35% say they plan to vote in person on Election Day.

The poll shows Biden with a 10 point lead over Trump nationally, 52% to 42%. Still, Trump holds an advantage when it comes to handling the economy, with 50% of voters saying he would do better job, compared with 43% for Biden. The poll was conducted Sept. 11-16 and has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points. -- Emma Kinery

Democratic Senate Candidates Ahead in Three Key States (11:51 a.m.)

Democratic Senate candidates are ahead in three states this November that could determine which party controls the chamber next year.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in Arizona, Maine and North Carolina show incumbent Republicans trailing by at least 5 percentage points.

Senate Republicans currently have a 53-member majority, so the loss of GOP Senators Martha McSally in Arizona, Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis in North Carolina would put them on the knife’s edge of losing control of the upper chamber.

Only one incumbent Democrat, Alabama Senator Doug Jones, is considered to be at risk of losing his seat.

The survey showed Democratic challengers Mark Kelly ahead by 8 points in Arizona, Sara Gideon ahead by 5 points in Maine and Cal Cunningham ahead by 5 points in North Carolina.

There are also competitive Senate races in Colorado, Iowa and Montana that could determine the majority in January.

The poll was conducted by phone from September 10-16 and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points in Arizona, 5.1 percentage points in Maine and 4.3 percentage points in North Carolina. -- Emma Kinery

Biden to Spend $100 Million Explaining How to Vote (10:44 a.m.)

The Biden campaign plans to spend at least $100 million on voter education efforts focused on encouraging supporters to cast their votes as early as possible.

The campaign will communicate about how to vote by mail and in person, an official said. The Democrats say it’s an effort to help counter misinformation they fear could suppress the vote, including coming from the president and Attorney General William Barr.

The program is an extension of the campaign’s field operation and will use mailings, digital communications and possibly TV advertising to reach voters. The first round of the effort is set to begin soon in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Georgia and Virginia, the official said. The Washington Post first reported the campaign’s efforts and planned spending.

Biden himself has also been promoting IWillVote.com, a voter education website operated by the Democratic National Committee, as he campaigns, including during a CNN town hall on Thursday night. -- Jennifer Epstein

Biden Lowballs His Own Poll Numbers in Fundraising Pitch (10:02 a.m.)

Biden is ahead in all six battleground states in recent polls, but his campaign is understating the lead in a fundraising pitch.

In a Facebook ad that began Thursday, the Biden campaign shows him with a 1 percentage point lead in Arizona and North Carolina, a 2-point lead in Florida, a 4-point lead in Pennsylvania and a 5-point lead in Michigan.

“We need you to see recent polls,” the ad copy says before asking for money to “keep up the momentum.”

The ad stretches the term “recent,” however. The most recent Arizona poll showing Biden with a 1-point lead was from Aug. 7-9, while polls since then have shown an average 5-point lead, according to Real Clear Politics.

And while a poll from early September shows Biden with a 5-point lead in Pennsylvania, more recent ones show him with a 6- or 8-point lead. The new ad doesn’t mention Wisconsin, where recent polls have given him anywhere from a 5- to 10-point lead.

Judge Overturns Michigan Ban on Free Uber Rides to Vote (7:13 a.m.)

A federal judge has overturned part of a Michigan election law that makes it a crime to hire drivers to take voters to the polls.

The ban had made Michigan one of the only states where drivers for Uber and Lyft weren’t allowed to bring voters to the polls for free.

Liberal voting rights group Priorities USA filed the lawsuit, arguing that the ban imposed a heavy burden on low-income and minority voters as well as students and senior citizens. State Republicans defended the measure as necessary to prevent voter fraud.

But U.S. District Court Judge Stephanie Dawkins Davis, an appointee of President Donald Trump, found that the ban did little to stop fraud or improper vote-influencing.

“It is unclear how paying for a taxi or Uber is any more likely to influence a voter than offering to transport them by way of a volunteer driver in a non-profit corporation’s minivan,” she wrote.

Super-PAC to Air $25 Million Attacking Biden as ‘Weak’

A pro-Trump super political action committee will spend $25 million on ads in battleground states attacking Biden as “too weak to lead America,” according to a person familiar with the effort.

Led by the Republican strategist who orchestrated the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads against John Kerry in 2004, Preserve America will air three ads featuring direct-to-camera testimonials from Americans criticizing Biden’s record on national security.

The ads feature the parents of Kayla Mueller, a humanitarian worker killed by ISIS; a retired Army sergeant who lost an arm in Afghanistan; and an Army captain who lost his legs in Afghanistan and later ran for Congress.

They criticize Biden for opposing the raid that killed Osama bin Laden when he was vice president, criticizing Trump’s order to kill Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and being “too silent” on unrest in major U.S. cities.

“Joe Biden is too weak to be our commander in chief,” says retired Master Sgt. Leroy Petry in one ad.

The ads will air in TV and digital advertising in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. -- Mario Parker

Mail-In Voting Begins in 19 More States

Ballots will be mailed out in 19 more states on Friday and Saturday, including the battleground state of Michigan.

With mail-in voting surging nationally, that means that tens of thousands of ballots will be cast in the coming days -- including in three battleground states -- before the presidential debates or other news have the opportunity to change the race.

Mail-in voting is already underway in the battleground state of North Carolina, which already has processed more than 81,000 returned ballots. And a court decision on Thursday cleared the way for election officials in Pennsylvania to begin sending ballots.

On Friday, ballots will be mailed out in Arkansas, Minnesota, South Dakota and West Virginia.

On Saturday, they’ll go out in Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming.

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