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Johnson Threatens Oct. 14 Election in Battle Over No-Deal Brexit

Johnson Threatens Oct. 14 Election in Battle Over No-Deal Brexit

(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Boris Johnson put the U.K. on notice that it may face an election within weeks, as the political crisis engulfing the country’s divorce from the European Union deepens.

Johnson will try to trigger a snap general election on Oct. 14 if he loses a crunch vote in Parliament this week, when his opponents will try to force him to delay Brexit, according to a senior official in his government.

Members of parliament who fear the effects of leaving the EU without a deal will try to take control of parliamentary business on Tuesday, a step toward trying to force Johnson to seek an extension to negotiations in the event of no agreement. Johnson says that would destroy his strategy of threatening to walk away from talks if the EU won’t give him what he wants.

Johnson told an emergency Cabinet meeting on Monday that if the rebels win, he’ll respond by seeking a vote the next day to hold a general election.

“I want everybody to know there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay,” he said in a hastily arranged statement outside his office.

Rebels Act

The new menace reflects both Johnson’s do-or-die approach to getting Britain out of the EU by Oct. 31, but also the failure of his previous attempts to stop Parliament from tying his hands. Last week he asked the Queen to stop Parliament from meeting for a month.

That galvanized his opponents, who realized they had little time to act, so over the weekend the government warned potential rebels in his Conservative Party that they’d be expelled if they voted against Johnson. That too seems to have failed.

The political turmoil and uncertainty over Brexit has hit the pound in recent weeks, and sterling was down 0.8% on Monday.

This move could also end up highlighting Johnson’s weakness. To get an election, he needs two-thirds of MPs to vote for one -- 434 of them. He has only 311 -- fewer if he starts expelling Tories.

In theory, making up the difference should be straightforward: The opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said on Monday morning that his party wanted an election. But in reality many Labour MPs said that they would vote against an election even if instructed to support one.

Vote Date

One Conservative rebel privately pointed out that it was impossible to specify an election date in the vote, and questioned whether Johnson could be trusted not to try to schedule the vote for after Britain has left the EU.

A person close to the rebels, speaking on condition of anonymity, was defiant. They pointed out that Johnson, who was attacking them for voting with Corbyn against the government, did so twice this year, and they accused him of doing everything he could to bring about an election.

Johnson might not even be able to table his vote. The rebels seeking to take control of the parliamentary agenda haven’t specified whether, if they did so, they would allow government business to proceed.

Election Plans

If the election did go ahead, Johnson would fight it arguing that he should be given a mandate to deliver Brexit, that he could take to the EU council on Oct. 17. Polls currently put the Conservative Party ahead, but uncertain factors include the rise of the Brexit Party, which might siphon off Tory votes, and the departure of Conservative votes in urban areas to anti-Brexit parties. If Johnson lost, he would become the shortest-serving prime minister in British history.

The rebel bill, published Monday night, would require Johnson to extend exit day to Jan. 31 if by Oct., 19 he hasn’t either reached a deal with the EU that’s approved by Parliament or secured Parliament’s agreement for leaving the bloc with no deal. It’s drafted to limit Johnson’s options, specifying the wording of the letter he would have to send, and that he would have to accept the EU’s response unless parliament voted not to.

Johnson, however, was adamant that he wouldn’t be constrained. “I want everybody to know there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay,” he said. “We’re leaving on 31 October, no ifs or buts. We will not accept any attempt to go back on our promises or to scrub that referendum.”

--With assistance from Kitty Donaldson, Alex Morales and Jessica Shankleman.

To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net;Tim Ross in London at tross54@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at fjackson@bloomberg.net, Caroline Alexander

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