Boris Johnson on Track for Win, With Majority on Knife Edge, Odds Say
Boris Johnson on Track for Win, With Majority on Knife Edge, Odds Say
If you listen to bookmakers, the central question in the U.K. general election is not whether Boris Johnson will win, but by how much.
Johnson is the overwhelming favorite to remain as prime minister after the Dec. 12 poll, according to bookmaker Paddy Power. At 3/1 on to lead the next government, punters would need to bet three pounds ($3.86) to win one pound -- effectively meaning the betting firm gives Johnson a 75% chance to keep his job.
Odds also suggest he has an increasing chance of winning an overall majority in Parliament -- which he has repeatedly said he needs to end the impasse over Brexit.
On Monday, Ladbrokes placed about a 60% chance on a Johnson majority, even before Nigel Farage said his Brexit Party will not contest the 317 seats won by the Conservatives in 2017.
“A hung parliament was the most likely scenario according to the betting last week, but the bookies are reporting a fair move towards a Tory majority by punters over the weekend,” Ladbrokes said.
Analysts and traders study bookmakers’ odds to help predict the outcome of market-moving events, though their reliability was dealt a blow in the 2016 referendum on the U.K.’s membership of the European Union. As the campaign ended, odds implied a 90% chance of voters opting to remain in the bloc.
U.K. Recent Election Polls Summary: Conservative 39%, Labour 27%
The current election odds are backed by recent opinion polls, which give the Conservatives a 12 percentage point lead over Labour on average.
The odds on Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn winning are 2/1 against, effectively a 33% chance, meaning gamblers would need to risk one pound to win two. His party has about a 5% chance of an overall majority in the House of Commons, according to Betfair.
To contact the reporters on this story: Dara Doyle in Dublin at ddoyle1@bloomberg.net;Peter Flanagan in Dublin at pflanagan23@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at cthomas16@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs, Emma Ross-Thomas
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