Johnson Gambles on Nine-Day Brexit Deadline

(Bloomberg) --

The European Union has nine days to save Brexit talks or Britain will walk away without a deal.

That’s the message Prime Minister Boris Johnson is sending to Brussels today. He’s setting an Oct. 11 deadline for an agreement and proposing the whole U.K. leaves the EU customs union in a few weeks. After a transition period, there would be temporary arrangements for goods crossing the Northern Irish border for about four years.

Johnson’s ultimatum is a far cry from the approach predecessor Theresa May took to the talks. She was fond of saying “no deal is better than a bad deal,” but few really believed she meant it. Johnson appears to be content with a messy divorce and is doing little to prevent one, in the hope a tough line will yield results.

May’s method failed. It’s not clear that Johnson’s tactics will succeed.

While he will get a rapturous response from the Tory faithful in Manchester today where he is speaking at the annual party conference, the reception to his “final” offer in Dublin, Berlin and Paris is far more important. So far there are no signs that European leaders are buying it.

That may be because they don’t believe he’d be able to crash out without a deal, even if he wants to. The U.K. parliament has passed a law designed to stop him and there’s a general election — and potential change of government — on the horizon.

Even before his deadline expires, Johnson may need a plan B.

Global Headlines

Counter messaging | U.S. President Donald Trump intensified his attacks on lawmakers pursuing a whistle-blower complaint about his request that Ukraine’s leader investigate Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, calling their efforts a “coup.”

• House Democrats are accelerating their impeachment inquiry, warning Secretary of State Michael Pompeo could face criminal charges after he rejected a plan to take testimony from five State Department officials starting today.
• Italy’s prime minister authorized two secret meetings between Attorney General William Barr and Rome’s intelligence agencies as part of a U.S. investigation into the scandal over Trump’s possible ties to Russia, major Italian daily Corriere della Sera reported.
• Billy House takes a closer look at House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, who has emerged as the standard bearer for the Democrats’ impeachment efforts.

Front-runner frustrations | Biden’s path to the 2020 Democratic nomination is getting murkier — even as he fends off Trump’s attempts to tarnish him with accusations over his son’s business dealings in Ukraine. The former vice president is being tested by the collective challenges of age (he’s 76), verbal blunders and rival Elizabeth Warren’s bold policy plans, Sahil Kapur and Tyler Pager report.

• Leading Democratic candidates are promising to pay for their policies with new taxes on the wealthy — even though some of them would be directly affected.

Missile away | North Korea fired what may be a new type of ballistic missile, sending a rocket designed to be launched from a submarine hundreds of miles into space before it splashed into the sea. It'll test Trump’s willingness to tolerate weapons launches, given Pyongyang announced just hours earlier it would resume working-level talks with the U.S. on its nuclear arsenal.

• Click here for an explainer on the North Korea-U.S. dispute.

Berlin-style stimulus | Chancellor Angela Merkel keeps telling people that Germany doesn’t need a fiscal boost. But as Birgit Jennen exclusively reports, her officials have already drawn up a plan to keep the economy going — some options may never see the light of day, but others are already being rolled out.

Syria standoff | Turkey may act alone by retaking areas in northeast Syria held by U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, after expressing frustration that efforts to defuse what he calls a threat to his country have failed. Turkey, the second-largest army in NATO, suspects the U.S. backs Kurdish aspirations for self-rule in Syria, and Ankara is preparing to use its military to prevent the region’s borders from being redrawn.

• Read more about how Erdogan’s impatience on Syria risks a standoff with the U.S.

What to Watch

• Thousands marched through Hong Kong’s financial center today after clashes yesterday saw police fire 1,407 rounds of tear gas and shoot a demonstrator for the first time since protests began in June over China’s increasing grip on the city.
• Pompeo is touring Europe even as he’s drawn deeper into the impeachment furor; today he meets Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio.
• The World Trade Organization will announce the amount of damages the U.S. suffered due to illegal Airbus subsidies, an issue that could trigger a round of tariffs from Washington. The EU has vowed to retaliate.
• Peru’s Vice President Mercedes Araoz resigned one day after being sworn in by lawmakers as interim leader, easing a standoff with President Martin Vizcarra over his move to dissolve the opposition-led Congress.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mounts a last-ditch appeal today to avert graft charges that could destroy a career already endangered by another post-election stalemate on forming a government.

Yesterday we heard from reader Ed after China’s 70th anniversary parade, noting the Soviet Union also celebrated its 70th birthday (in 1987) but “only two years later the vast Soviet Empire started to crumble.” Tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... An event to showcase Qatar’s readiness for the 2022 World Cup has instead raised questions about its ability to host the globe’s biggest sporting event. Rows of empty seats and operational hiccups drew criticism from foreign visitors at the IAAF World Athletics Championships. More than a third of runners didn’t finish the women’s marathon, where temperatures hit 32 degrees Celsius (90 degrees Fahrenheit) and humidity topped 70% even in the middle of the night.

--With assistance from Kathleen Hunter.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net, Michael WinfreyKarl Maier

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