Biden and Warren Pitch Democrats on Competing Paths to Win the White House
Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren See Two Paths to Win 2020 Voters
(Bloomberg) -- Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are pitching prominent Democrats on two very different paths to winning voters the party lost to Donald Trump in 2016: He says he can recreate the Obama coalition, while she says her anti-corporate-greed message will appeal to struggling Americans.
The choice is heightening a clash over the party’s future along ideological and generational lines. Biden reflects older and center-left voters’ desire to return to a moderate governing style, as Warren channels a rising young left that wants to remake a political system that she says has become unresponsive to the working class.
The internal debate comes as the race for the Democratic nomination narrows essentially to Biden and Warren with Bernie Sanders in third place and the rest polling in single digits.
In private, Biden has told influential Democrats he can win moderates who voted for Barack Obama in 2012, supported Trump in 2016 and were disillusioned enough by 2018 to vote Democratic in the midterm elections.
Warren has told Democratic leaders that she can expand the party with a message of confronting corporate greed and expanding the safety net. That could bring back the white working-class voters who Hillary Clinton lost in 2016.
For now, most party leaders are going with Biden, and he remains ahead among voters in a CNN poll released Wednesday.
“Joe Biden will be the stronger candidate,” said Representative G.K. Butterfield, a North Carolina Democrat and former chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, whose endorsement Warren sought. “He has the ability to forge a very unique, a diverse support base, first among Democrats but equally as important among independents.”
Biden skeptics say the party bosses have a poor record of picking winning nominees.
“I worry that when you look at an Al Gore, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton — that Joe Biden is a similar type,” said progressive strategist Rebecca Katz. “Washington Democrats have a candidate every few years that they think is unbeatable. And we’ve lost a lot. So maybe it’s time for something different.”
And Warren edged ahead of Biden after the two candidates were essentially tied for weeks, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll showing her with the support of 28% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, while Biden had 21%.
The potential clash between the two leading candidates raises another worry for Democrats: A repeat of the nasty 2016 primary battle between Clinton and Sanders, which many of them say disrupted party unity and cleared the way for Trump.
The argument comes as Biden’s once-overwhelming “electability” advantage over rivals has shrunk, and hypothetical polling match-ups show that both he and Warren would defeat Trump nationally and in the key states of Florida, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Biden backers say 2020 is different than any previous election.
“This is an election that’s unlike any we’ve seen,” said Rick Palacio, a former chairman of the Colorado Democratic Party. “Right now, people around the country are terrified of another four years of a Trump. We could take a chance on Elizabeth Warren or we could go to the route of safety. I just think the path is easier for Joe Biden.”
The Biden-Warren contest represents an intra-party struggle over whether the Obama administration was the pinnacle of Democratic governance or a stepping stone to a more progressive vision.
While Biden has the party’s establishment on his side, grassroots Democrats favor Warren and have made her competitive with Biden in national surveys and key early states.
But both have weaknesses. Biden’s lackluster fundraising and fumbles on the campaign trail have raised questions about whether he’s equipped to withstand a long, grueling race. Warren’s left-wing platform, particularly her call for the elimination of private health insurance under Medicare for All, has some Democrats worried that she’d lose middle-of-the-road suburban voters in a general election.
The Biden theory of consolidating the party’s 2018 gains with upscale suburban voters is “the more realistic approach,” said David Wasserman, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “Democrats could remain stagnant at 2016 levels with that group if Trump makes the case that effectively that Warren will take away private insurance.”
Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said Biden may appear stronger “on first glance” but that “under the scrutiny of a long campaign Biden’s seeming appeal to the white working class voter in the Midwest may fade.”
“Trump could get to the left of him on certain foreign policy issues and on trade potentially,” he said. “Warren would present a more authentic populist message. She’d also be running as more of a disruptive big government liberal.”
Kondik said the path to victory is the same for both: Hold the Clinton 2016 states and win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — all three were decided by less an 1 point — with Florida and Arizona as wild cards. “It’s just a question of how well they can do.”
Progressives worry that Biden’s pitch won’t expand the Democratic base. He has strong support from older black voters who see him as Obama’s heir but has failed to excite younger voters of color to vote.
“Biden worries me at this moment,” said Aimee Allison, an activist who runs She The People, a group that seeks to elevate women of color.
“We’re going to need turnout to be higher than ever in history. I want the candidate who is prepared for that,” Allison said, adding that Warren “has a lot of the fundamental building blocks” for a general election by showing an ability to organize and excite voters — particularly young, non-white and female voters who don’t reliably turn out.
Jeff Link, a Democratic strategist in Iowa who has studied Obama-Trump voters, said they’re motivated by “who can bring about change to Washington.” Viewed through this lens, Warren may be more attractive to them because “she has more change messaging than Biden does right now,” he said.
But Link warned that she must avoid the perception she wants to “give away free stuff,” calling that a turnoff for those voters.
Brian Fallon, a former spokesman for Clinton’s 2016 campaign, said a progressive can win Obama-Trump voters next year if that candidate “looks like a change agent.”
“Those voters are not entirely ideological,” he said. “They hate D.C. and like to shake things up, which is the only thing Obama and Trump had in common.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Sahil Kapur in Washington at skapur39@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, John Harney
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