Israel Heads to Third Election in Less Than a Year
A supporter holds a poster of Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, during a rally of support outside the courtroom in Tel Aviv, Israel. (Photographer: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg)  

Israel Heads to Third Election in Less Than a Year

Bookmark

(Bloomberg) -- Israel is headed to its third election in less than a year, an astonishing development that’s closely intertwined with Benjamin Netanyahu’s legal troubles and might not resolve the political crisis.

The country’s fractured parliament had until midnight Wednesday to find a lawmaker who could form a governing coalition after both Netanyahu and his chief rival, former military chief Benny Gantz, failed to do so during months of political horsetrading. The deadline passed with the stalemate intact, making a revote a foregone conclusion. Early Thursday morning, the Knesset approved a bill to officially disband itself and set elections for March 2.

Israel Heads to Third Election in Less Than a Year

Israeli Politicians Back March 2 Date for Potential Third Election

Israeli governments have a history of instability, often dissolving before completing their terms, but things have never been so dysfunctional. Then again, neither has a sitting Israeli leader ever stood trial, as Netanyahu was informed in November that he must do in three influence-peddling cases.

With Netanyahu under indictment, Gantz’s Blue and White bloc balked at teaming up with the prime minister’s Likud in a power-sharing deal that could address the country’s economic and security challenges after a year of political deadlock.

“Netanyahu’s indictments created a gap with Gantz that no amount of negotiations could bridge,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute research center. “They both are calculating that third elections will finally force the other side to compromise on these basic principles that they have stayed true to during the last two rounds.”

The threat of indictment was a central issue in April and September elections, which -- despite Netanyahu’s reputation as a canny political operator -- ended inconclusively with political newcomer Gantz’s Blue and White roughly tied with Likud. Blue and White’s strong performance, despite Gantz’s political inexperience and wooden public performances, reflected how desperate many Israelis are to replace a divisive leader dogged by suspicions of bribery and fraud.

Israel Heads to Third Election in Less Than a Year

Netanyahu supporters stood by him, adopting his claim that he’s the victim of a politically motivated witch hunt by opponents who deplore his agenda but can’t defeat him at the ballot box. Netanyahu is accused of illicitly taking about 1 million shekels ($288,000) worth of cigars and champagne from wealthy friends over the course of a decade, and of scheming to help media moguls in exchange for sympathetic coverage. After he was handed the charge sheet, he accused law enforcement of trying to stage a putsch.

Israel Heads to Third Election in Less Than a Year

Netanyahu had hoped to return to office with a majority that would allow him to push through legislation shielding a sitting leader from prosecution. Polls suggest a third round of balloting will produce the same kind of logjam that’s paralyzed decision-making since Netanyahu first called snap elections last December.

Most polls show Likud and Blue and White both doing slightly better since the Justice Ministry announced it was indicting Netanyahu. And both the prime minister and Gantz would again struggle to build a coalition if former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman keeps refusing to endorse either man.

Kingmaker Edges Israel Closer to Third Election in a Year

The Israeli leader’s legal troubles have encouraged Likud lawmaker Gideon Saar to mount a rare open challenge to Netanyahu’s longtime stewardship of the party. Media have reported rumblings within Likud’s upper echelons that the legally embattled premier must be replaced. Recent polls showed Saar would lead Likud to a similar second-place showing against Blue and White as Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister with a total of 13 years in power.

But Netanyahu maneuvered within Likud to put off a leadership race, blocking any prospect that Saar could be chosen party chief and build a coalition with Gantz before Wednesday’s deadline expired. The general is willing to join forces with Likud if Netanyahu isn’t its chief.

Under Israeli law, the prime minister can stay in office until he has exhausted all avenues of appeal. However, some argue there’s judicial precedent to force Netanyahu to step aside if he manages to put together a government after the next vote.

Attorney General Avihai Mandelblit has ruled that Netanyahu could continue to lead a caretaker government despite the criminal charges, but withheld an opinion on whether the premier could form a new government, calling the question “hypothetical” at this point.

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

BQ Install

Bloomberg Quint

Add BloombergQuint App to Home screen.