ADVERTISEMENT

Is May Any Closer to Getting Parliament to Back Her Brexit Deal?

Is May Any Closer to Getting Parliament to Back Her Brexit Deal?

(Bloomberg) -- As the third vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal approached, Conservative party whips dispatched ministers across the House of Commons to hunt down waverers they were friendly with and bring them into the fold.

It was a surprisingly successful operation: 41 Tories switched sides to back the deal. But it wasn’t enough. What does the breakdown of the votes reveal about whether May could get her deal through if, as expected, she tries again?

The Deficit: 30

May was defeated by 286 votes to 344. She needs another 30 votes.

The Tories

We’re now down to the hard core of 34 hold-outs. Five of those are anti-Brexit, and the rest regard May’s deal as not enough Brexit. Could the whips continue to chip away at them? Possibly. Privately, there are members of Parliament (MPs) on both sides of that divide who admit to feeling the pressure. One member of the pro-Brexit caucus, the European Research Group, confided ahead of the vote that he was finding the situation awful. Now that the ERG chair, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has switched to the government side, it could be easier for others to follow.

Labour

The big failure of the government so far has been to get more than a handful of MPs from the main opposition party to support it. Two more joined in on Friday, taking the total to five. There are more that could be willing to defy party orders, but May can’t win them over.

What Next?

The latest move to get Labour support is an offer to make legally-binding commitments that Parliament would have a formal say over the next stage of negotiations, including the right to set a negotiating mandate, and to veto any deal. That announcement came too late on Friday to make a dent in Labour, but putting it into writing might make a difference.

Indicative Votes: Round 2

On Monday, Parliament is due to hold another set of votes on alternative routes forward. The first set of indicative votes earlier this week suggested that the only kinds of Brexit Parliament is likely to be able to agree on is a softer one than May is offering, possibly staying in the customs union.

Is May Any Closer to Getting Parliament to Back Her Brexit Deal?

Government aides now talk about using this process to confront the hardliners on their own side with a choice between May’s Brexit and Parliament’s. But that conflicts with the pledge to give Parliament more control over the process. The only way it would work is if Tories believed that May’s successor wouldn’t be bound by her promises -- which would thwart attempts to win Labour MPs.

To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, ;Emma Ross-Thomas at erossthomas@bloomberg.net, Flavia Krause-Jackson

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.