Iran on the Table When Russia, U.S. and Israel Gather for Summit
When top national security officials from Russia, Israel and the U.S. gather for a rare summit, the focus will be on Iran.
(Bloomberg) -- When top national security officials from Russia, Israel and the U.S. gather for a rare summit starting Monday, the focus will be on the country not in the room: Iran.
Amid rising regional tensions, the meeting is a critical opportunity to hash out how they view the future of Iran’s presence in Syria as an eight-year-long civil war there winds down.
Russia wants to project power across the Middle East through its ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and would like to limit Iran’s competing influence in the country. That’s much less than what Israel and the U.S. want when it comes to combating Iran, complicating efforts to reach a broad agreement.
“If we’re talking about Syria, definitely there are some areas where Russia would like to see the Iranian role decrease -- that’s where it can help the U.S.,” said Nikolay Kozhanov, a Middle East expert at the European University at St. Petersburg who served as a Russian diplomat in Tehran from 2006-2009. “The problem is the extent to which Moscow is willing to go is probably not going to satisfy the Americans, who want the Iranians completely out.”
The talks in Israel will include U.S.-Russia negotiations on Monday and a three-way meeting Tuesday, according to a U.S. National Security Council spokesman.
Bolton’s Accusations
The parties have been broadcasting their positions in the lead-up to the summit. Speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton accused Iran of stepping up aggressive efforts throughout the Middle East and pursuing nuclear weapons.
“Neither Iran, nor any other hostile actor, should mistake U.S. prudence and discretion for weakness,” he said, just days after President Donald Trump called off air-strikes last week after Iran shot down an American drone.
Instead, Trump promised to impose more sanctions on Iran as soon as this Monday. The U.S. exited the international nuclear deal with Iran last year and began reimposing economic sanctions.
‘Iran’s Interests’
Russia has taken a different tack, saying the talks will focus on stabilizing Syria, including through postwar reconstruction. The head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, said it will push for Iran’s interests to be respected.
“Iran is in Syria at the invitation of the legitimate government and is actively involved in fighting terrorism, so of course we should take Iran’s interests into account” at the summit, Patrushev said June 20, a day after meeting his Iranian counterpart Ali Shamkhani at a security conference, state news service RIA Novosti reported.
Ahead of the meeting, speculation has swirled that a broad agreement could be reached that would see some combination of U.S. concessions -- such as recognizing Assad’s legitimacy or lifting sanctions on Russia -- in exchange for Russia clamping down on Iran’s influence in Syria.
Israel has been striking Iranian targets in Syria over the past few years and is likely more interested in seeing Iran gone from its northern doorstep than in ousting Assad.
Grand Bargain?
But Russia’s foreign ministry, in a statement on its website, dismissed reports of a “deal or trade-off” as unhelpful to negotiations.
In place of a broader compromise, the meeting could lead to minimal results like improved communication channels or Russia continuing to allow Israeli air raids.
“Israel is hoping for this grand bargain where basically the U.S. will come to terms with Assad staying somehow and the Russians will compel Iran to roll back its military presence from Syria,” said Ofer Zalzberg, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group research center. “That strikes me as wishful thinking.”
--With assistance from Michael S. Arnold.
To contact the reporters on this story: Ivan Levingston in Tel Aviv at ilevingston@bloomberg.net;Henry Meyer in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Riad Hamade at rhamade@bloomberg.net, Michael S. Arnold, Paul Abelsky
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