Iowa Caucuses Still Up for Grabs, Monmouth Poll Shows

(Bloomberg) -- Iowa remains up for grabs with nearly half of voters saying they could change their mind five days before the Feb. 3 caucuses, according to a Monmouth University poll released Wednesday.

The poll of likely Democratic caucus goers found Joe Biden leading with 23%, closely followed by Bernie Sanders with 21%, Pete Buttigieg with 16% and Elizabeth Warren with 15%. Amy Klobuchar had 10%. The numbers are barely changed from Monmouth’s last survey earlier this month.

“Caucus electorates are the most difficult to model in polling,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, in a statement. “The smartest takeaway from this, or any Iowa poll for that matter, is to be prepared for anything on Monday.”

Iowans also have yet to make up their mind. The poll found 45% of likely caucusgoers said they were open to changing their support on caucus night -- 13% of voters said it was a high possibility and 23% said it was a “moderate possibility.”

Sanders supporters are the least likely to waiver, 58% said they were firmly supporting him, followed by Warren with 55%, Buttigieg with 49%, Biden with 48% and Klobuchar with 47%. The poll conducted Jan. 23-27 had a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

This post is part of Campaign Update, our live coverage from the 2020 campaign trail.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, Max Berley

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