Inflation-Wary Manchin Voters Put Biden’s Agenda in Peril
Inflation-Wary Manchin Voters Put Biden’s Agenda in Peril
(Bloomberg) -- When Senator Joe Manchin says President Joe Biden’s $1.75 trillion social spending package will worsen inflation and leave the most basic government services like Social Security and Medicare in danger, he’s reflecting the fears of his aging and vulnerable West Virginia constituents.
Manchin has been one of two major holdouts imperiling Senate passage of Biden’s so-called Build Back Better legislation, which includes universal pre-kindergarten, child-care subsidies, and, possibly, paid family leave and free community college, as well as addressing elder care and prescription drug prices. It also includes measures to address climate change.
Last week’s latest inflation report showing prices rising 6.2% over one year ago brought a fresh statement of opposition from West Virginia’s senior senator, who said that Washington “can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.”
That pain especially threatens West Virginia, whose residents trail only Maine and New Hampshire by age. State and federal benefit payments make up a third of residents’ personal income, the highest dependence on government programs of any state, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data compiled by Bloomberg.
“Food prices going up, gas prices going up fast. It’s hard. It’s hard. Like so, as far as stress, everybody’s stressed,” said Ernest Shaw, a barbershop owner in Logan County, where the average unemployment rate for 2020 was 12.2%, ranking the 61st highest out of the U.S.’s 3,142 counties.
Manchin has spoken of his constituents’ vulnerability to economic shocks, saying it costs more than a dollar to shop at the local dollar store.
“That’s hard for West Virginians, a lot of people do shop there, it’s all they have. We have to take all this in consideration,” Manchin told reporters in September.
Manchin has insisted that an extension of the post-pandemic child tax credit have a work requirement. West Virginians are more reliant on it than most other states, with more than 77% of residents using the credit to pay for food over a recent four-week period, government data show.
In a state with a median age of 42.9 years, old-age benefits are relatively more important than the free child care and community college in Biden’s proposal.
The reliance on government programs largely involves Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, but also pandemic-related stimulus programs like extended unemployment benefits, economic impact payments and the Paycheck Protection Program. But these residents also have a political distrust of even more government intervention in their lives.
“I have a lot of elderly people,” Manchin, 74, said at a recent speech to the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. “If Social Security and Medicare is not solvent and the trust funds are not solvent, then you’re taking away a lifeline that people have right now. Why should I expand all these social services when I can’t even pay for what we got?”
Manchin is the only Democrat in West Virginia’s congressional delegation. The state hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996. Former President Donald Trump carried the state by more than 38 percentage points in both 2016 and 2020. Manchin has acknowledged that his position puts him out of step with others in the Democratic Party.
“Do you think by having a ‘D’ or an ‘I’ or an ‘R’ is going to change who I am? I don’t think the Rs would be any more happy than the Ds are right now,” he said in the interview with David Rubenstein of Carlyle Group Inc. “So I don’t know where in the hell I belong.”
Manchin’s constituents in southern West Virginia say that they understand where he’s coming from.
“He reminds me of John McCain from Arizona. He’s a little bit of a maverick. He’s not afraid to go against the establishment,” said Darrell P. Tomblin, a 74-year-old Air Force veteran and retired welding equipment worker from Chapmanville, West Virginia. He said he’s still a registered Democrat despite decades of having voted for Republicans for president.
“I hope he turns Republican,” Tomblin said.
West Virginians tout an independent streak and take pride in their history.
“It’s historically and culturally suspicious of big government and big business, and it’s also a state with a very populist bent,” said Rex Repass, a West Virginia pollster. “Part of that is the Appalachian culture. It has a lot to do with their independence. ‘Mountaineers are always free.’ That’s the state motto.”
Keith Stephens, the Democratic Party chair in Boone County who also runs a nonprofit social services agency, said government programs often don’t consider the unique logistical challenges in alleviating rural poverty. It’s challenging and labor-intensive to deliver services to hard-to-reach parts of the state, he said.
“That’s what Manchin is trying to deal with in some of those bills he’s blocking,” Stephens said. “You gotta understand Mr. Manchin. I feel like he rides the fence. He plays both sides a lot of time.”
Democratic State Senator Ron Stollings said Manchin was the only member of the state’s congressional delegation to support the American Rescue Plan, which set aside $3 billion for the nation’s most distressed coal communities. West Virginia is set to receive $300 million. And if the region gets additional money for infrastructure or social programs, it will only be because Manchin supports that, too.
“Everything’s hard right now. Coal is supposed to be on the upturn right now. The people are in the mines, they’re hanging on good. But other than that little pickup there’s not much going on,” Shaw said.
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