In Moscow, Some See Opportunity in Comedian's Victory in Ukraine
In Moscow, Some See Opportunity in Comedian’s Victory in Ukraine
(Bloomberg) -- Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the front-runner after the first round of Ukraine’s elections Sunday, didn’t take particularly pro-Russian positions on the campaign trail, but some in Moscow say the upstart comedian’s unexpectedly strong showing could be an opportunity for the Kremlin to regain some influence in its smaller neighbor.
The three leading candidates took tough lines on relations with Russia, with which Ukraine has been at war since the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russian forces. But Sunday’s voting dealt a blow to Moscow’s main nemesis, President Petro Poroshenko, who ran a weak second to enter the April 21 runoff.
“The Kremlin didn’t believe Zelenskiy could win until March as they just don’t understand these things,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a Moscow political analyst who has advised Russian officials on Ukrainian politics, referring to the success of the comedian’s insurgent campaign. “Now they will be preparing for the parliamentary elections” in the fall, he said.
Moscow has struggled to rebuild influence in Ukraine, its biggest former-Soviet neighbor and a key transit route for gas exports, after the 2014 crisis in which pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted. In addition to annexing Crimea, Russian-backed forces fueled a rebellion in eastern Ukraine that’s killed more than 13,000 and continues to fester.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was “premature” to comment on the results before the second round is complete, adding, “Of course, we’d like to see not the party of war at the helm in Ukraine but a party that is aiming at gradual normalization of the situation in southeastern Ukraine.”
Zelenskiy tapped into anger at Ukraine’s lack of progress from the pro-European revolution that ousted Yanukovych. With nearly three-quarters of the vote counted, he had 30 percent, with Poroshenko getting 16 percent and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko at 13 percent.
Poroshenko pledged to push Ukraine faster toward membership in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and painted Zelenskiy as a “puppet” of the wealthy oligarch whose television channel carries his show. Poroshenko has also tried to undermine support for Zelenskiy by casting him as the Kremlin’s preferred candidate.
Parliamentary Contest
Zelenskiy has released few details of his policy program and repeatedly denied political links to the billionaire, Igor Kolomoisky, who backed volunteer military units that fought the pro-Russian separatists and drew Vladimir Putin’s ire in 2014 for calling the Russian president “a schizophrenic of short stature.”
“For the Kremlin, Zelenskiy is probably more favorable than Poroshenko, but only because he has no political experience,” said Alexei Makarkin, vice president of the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow.
Russian state television highlighted allegations of voting irregularities in its coverage, with the main Sunday-evening news show saying, “people don’t have much hope of improvement after the elections.”
If Zelenskiy prevails in the runoff -- as polls currently show he’s likely to -- that could provide an opportunity for the Kremlin to foment further instability in the transition period, Pavlovsky said. In a power vacuum, “Putin could make a play and meddle, combining military, economic and political actions,” he said.
Sunday’s results brought some good news for Moscow in the strong showing of a pro-Russian candidate, Yuri Boiko, who was running fourth with 12 percent of the vote. That could position him well for the parliamentary elections, according to analysts in Moscow.
“The Kremlin has it’s own game and it’s shown it clearly: it wants a larger loyal faction in the Rada,” said Makarkin of the Center for Political Technologies, referring to the parliament.
To contact the reporters on this story: Stepan Kravchenko in Moscow at skravchenko@bloomberg.net;Ilya Arkhipov in Moscow at iarkhipov@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Gregory L. White at gwhite64@bloomberg.net, Andrew Langley
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